本文主要關注後冷戰時期,面對中國崛起,美中兩強與以「竹子外交」聞名的泰國如何相互應對與影響?本文主要研究問題為:一、促成美中泰三方互動結構轉變之重要政治事件為何?二、美中泰三方互動是否存在第三方影響?三、美中泰三角關係內部行為如何相互影響?透過時間序列分析,統計結果佐證911事件對美中泰三角關係產生了結構轉變之效應,而中國政經因素與泰國內政因素之衝擊有限。此外,統計結果也證實美中泰三角關係中,美中互動將促成泰國利用對美政策加以平衡回應,顯示泰國面對大國政治的敏感與謹慎。
Facing China’s rise in the post-Cold War era, how do great powers, like the United States, China, and Thailand, who is famous for its bamboo strategy, interact with each other? This paper aims to answer the question by analyzing (1) what events cause structural changes in the triangle; (2) how the third-party effect works in this triangle; (3) how the three actors influence each other. By applying time-series analyses, statistical results show that the 911 attack had led to a structural change for the triangle. The impact of China’s political-economic factors and Thai politics was not as significant as expected. On the other hand, statistical results also reveal the pattern that Thailand tended to balance the US- China interactions with its policy toward the United States, which also indicates Thailand’s sensitivity and prudence to power politics.
本文主要研究問題是:中國大陸對於衝突預防的原則性立場與態度為何?在身為當事國與第三方行為者兩種不同身分時,其在實踐上有何不同?本文藉由南蘇丹危機與南海衝突兩個案例分析中國大陸在衝突預防實踐上,面對事關自身主權與國家利益以及與自身主權無關之衝突事件時,在衝突預防作為上有何差異?其宣示與實際作為有何落差?此外,為何中 國大陸在南海議題上,會由堅持雙邊對話,轉變為也同意透過多邊機制,作為處理南海主權爭議途徑的立場與作為?在這樣的雙邊與多邊機制下,呈現出怎樣的「中國..
The main research questions of the paper are as follow: first of all, what are China’s position, attitude, and actions in conflict prevention, second question is what is the difference between China’s action and statement on the issue of the South China Sea dispute and the South Sudan Crisis when China is one of the parties who faces sovereignty and national interest, and as a third- party in the practice of conflict prevention. Third question is why China is willing to change her position from insisting bilateral..
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