2008 年 9 月，美國、玻利維亞及委內瑞拉三國爆發令周邊國家擔憂的嚴重外交衝突事件。這個緊張情勢雖然在三方決定自我克制的情況下，除了相互驅逐大使，情勢並未惡化，但三方何以採取如此克制的作為，是筆者欲在本文探討的議題。本文利用傑維斯(Robert Jervis)1976年書中所提出決策者的認知、對他國意向的解讀、敵意的高低等認知心理途徑的核心概念，檢視 2008 年美、玻、委三國外交衝突事件中，三方究竟本於何種的利益考量或計算，才做出相互克制以緩解衝突的決定。本文發現促成美、玻、委三方 在 2008 年採取克制態度處理衝突事件的主要因素是，衝突事件當時的不一致訊息及複雜的情勢所致，因為在無法判定風險與代價高低時，決策者通常避免過早做出決定以減少錯誤，因而延後對外使用武力及衝突爆發的時間。
In September 2008, there was a serious diplomatic confrontation involving the United States, Bolivia, and Venezuela that alarmed other countries in the Western Hemisphere. The decision to exercise self-restraint on all sides meant that action was limited to the mutual expulsion of ambassadors and the crisis did not escalate. In this paper, the author studies why the three countries exercised such self-restraint. Robert Jervis’ core concepts of policymakers’ perceptions, the understanding of other countries’ intentions, and image of hostility are employed in examining why the three countries involved decided to back down from the confrontation. The author finds that the main reasons for this were inconsistent information and the complexity of the situation. In a situation in which it is impossible to calculate risks and costs, policymakers often postpone making decisions in order to minimize mistakes, thus deferring the use of military force and the outbreak of conflicts.
在美國歷史上所簽訂的 14 項 FTA 中，NAFTA 與 CAFTA-DR 最能展現總統與國會在 FTA 政策制訂上所扮演角色與影響決策的程度，故本文以此兩項 FTA 作為研究美國 FTA 決策主體的案例。研究發現，在對外政策的決策主體的三種不同的模式:總統主導模式、國會主導模式與互動模式中，總統模式最能解釋美國 FTA 政策。總統具有龐大的國內外行政資源與政黨力量，可以干預國會的決策並改變個別議員的投票傾向，在不影響 FTA 基本內涵與目的下促使國會通過..
Among all 14 FTA’s signed by the U.S. in history, NAFTA and CAFTA-DR - selected by this paper as cases to identify the entity that owns the power of dominating the U.S. FTA policy - most represent the dynamics and impacts of President and Congress on the FTA policy formation. The research shows that among the three models of decision-making entities of foreign policy - President, Congress, and Interaction, the President model best explains the decision-making of FTA policies. President controls enormous external and int..
本文主要關注後冷戰時期，面對中國崛起，美中兩強與以「竹子外交」聞名的泰國如何相互應對與影響?本文主要研究問題為:一、促成美中泰三方互動結構轉變之重要政治事件為何?二、美中泰三方互動是否存在第三方影響?三、美中泰三角關係內部行為如何相互影響?透過時間序列分析，統計結果佐證911事件對美中泰三角關係產生了結構轉變之效應，而中國政經因素與泰國內政因素之衝擊有限。此外，統計結果也證實美中泰三角關係中，美中互動將促成泰國利用對美政策加以平衡回應，顯示泰國面對大國政治的..
Facing China’s rise in the post-Cold War era, how do great powers, like the United States, China, and Thailand, who is famous for its bamboo strategy, interact with each other? This paper aims to answer the question by analyzing (1) what events cause structural changes in the triangle; (2) how the third-party effect works in this triangle; (3) how the three actors influence each other. By applying time-series analyses, statistical results show that the 911 attack had led to a structural change for the triangle. The impa..
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