本文檢視 9 個在 2000 年至 2013 年與中華民國(以下簡稱臺灣)斷交的國家,以探討友邦與我斷交背後的中華人民共和國(以下稱中國)因素。本研究發現,對臺灣友邦來說,獲取來自中國在貿易、投資與金援的經濟考量,以及透過中國的支持提升其國際地位與穩固國內政權的政治考量,是影響友邦是否願意與臺灣延續外交關係的重要因素。大部分友邦在與臺灣斷交後,均能獲取大量來自中國的經濟與政治利益,即便是擁有長期穩固邦誼的友邦亦然。從友邦的角度來看,透過遊走於兩岸的外交競爭之中,讓臺灣與中國競租外交關係,能夠大幅提升其國家利益,因此道德與理想難以在極度現實的友邦爭奪戰中勝出。對臺灣而言,邦交國無法長期收買,只能短期租用,若維持邦交國數量仍是外交政策的重要目標,則臺灣恐需要更全盤地有彈性且客制化地制定出有效的經濟誘因,以提升與各國建交的可能性。
This paper investigates the underlying China factor that played out when nine countries ended diplomatic relations with the Republic of China (hereafter called ‘Taiwan’). Research shows acquiring economic benefits from China, in terms of trade, investment and foreign aid, securing China’s support for enhancing international status and consolidating domestic political power are important factors when an ally of Taiwan considers breaking ties. Most allies receive immediate and significant political and economic benefits from China, even those who have been allies of Taiwan for many years, as soon as they severe ties. They can greatly improve their national interests by capitalizing on the Taiwan-China diplomatic battle. Thus, Taiwan cannot win this fight by appealing to morals and ideals. Diplomatic allies are not for sale; Taiwan is only able to rent them for a while. If maintaining the number of diplomatic allies remains a priority for Taiwan, the government needs to come up with more comprehensive, flexible and customized economic incentives in order to(re-)establish diplomatic relationships with target countries.
克赤海峽為連接黑海與亞速海(Sea of Azov)的唯一通道,海峽通行權不管是對俄羅斯或烏克蘭或第三國都不曾發生重大問題,隨著2014年俄羅斯兼併克里米亞半島,2015年俄羅斯重啟克里米亞大橋建設後才衍生出通行權問題。然反觀臺灣海峽為連接東海與南海的海上交通要道,近來每當美國及他國軍艦通過臺灣海峽時,中國大陸軍艦即尾隨或驅離,對海峽通行權造成若干程度的影響,也提高了發生擦槍走火的可能性。2018年11月25日克赤海峽所發生的衝突事件對臺灣海峽通行權問題的啟..
The Kerch Strait connecting the Sea of Azov to the Black Sea is the only route in and out of the Sea of Azov. Passages through the strait had been free of major issues until 2014 when Russia occupied Crimea, pushing out Ukraine; thereby controlling both sides of the strait and began quickly constructing a bridge spanning the strait. In East Asia, there is the Taiwan Strait that connects the East China Sea to the South China Sea. Unlike the Kerch Strait, the Strait of Taiwan is a significant international sea route. Recently U..
1960 年代末期,海洋地質專家即已預測東海大陸礁層蘊藏著豐富的油氣資源,並且造成了周圍國家的震撼,臺灣、中國與日本競相投入海域的探勘活動。但是,後來為了避免國際紛爭,各方遂停止在東海探採石油。然而,隨著海底資源開發技術的發展、國際原油價格節節攀升,以及聯合國海洋法公約的生效,中、日雙方圍繞在東海油氣田的爭端再度爆發出來。由於中國開始在日本主張的「中間線」附近開採石油,造成日本的強烈反應,雙方衝突不斷升級,值得臺灣密切關注。深究中、日在東海發生爭端的根本原因..
In the late 1960s, marine geologists had predicted that the continental shelf in the East China Sea is rich in oil and gas. This finding shocked the surrounding regions of Taiwan, Japan, and China, leading to a fever of oil exploration. These countries then stopped the exploration to prevent further international disputes. However, as new seabed resources exploring technology is developed, rising price of crude oil, and the implementation of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, the conflict of the East China Sea oil and g..
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