本文主要關注後冷戰時期,面對中國崛起,美中兩強與以「竹子外交」聞名的泰國如何相互應對與影響?本文主要研究問題為:一、促成美中泰三方互動結構轉變之重要政治事件為何?二、美中泰三方互動是否存在第三方影響?三、美中泰三角關係內部行為如何相互影響?透過時間序列分析,統計結果佐證911事件對美中泰三角關係產生了結構轉變之效應,而中國政經因素與泰國內政因素之衝擊有限。此外,統計結果也證實美中泰三角關係中,美中互動將促成泰國利用對美政策加以平衡回應,顯示泰國面對大國政治的敏感與謹慎。
Facing China’s rise in the post-Cold War era, how do great powers, like the United States, China, and Thailand, who is famous for its bamboo strategy, interact with each other? This paper aims to answer the question by analyzing (1) what events cause structural changes in the triangle; (2) how the third-party effect works in this triangle; (3) how the three actors influence each other. By applying time-series analyses, statistical results show that the 911 attack had led to a structural change for the triangle. The impact of China’s political-economic factors and Thai politics was not as significant as expected. On the other hand, statistical results also reveal the pattern that Thailand tended to balance the US- China interactions with its policy toward the United States, which also indicates Thailand’s sensitivity and prudence to power politics.
在美國歷史上所簽訂的 14 項 FTA 中,NAFTA 與 CAFTA-DR 最能展現總統與國會在 FTA 政策制訂上所扮演角色與影響決策的程度,故本文以此兩項 FTA 作為研究美國 FTA 決策主體的案例。研究發現,在對外政策的決策主體的三種不同的模式:總統主導模式、國會主導模式與互動模式中,總統模式最能解釋美國 FTA 政策。總統具有龐大的國內外行政資源與政黨力量,可以干預國會的決策並改變個別議員的投票傾向,在不影響 FTA 基本內涵與目的下促使國會通過..
Among all 14 FTA’s signed by the U.S. in history, NAFTA and CAFTA-DR - selected by this paper as cases to identify the entity that owns the power of dominating the U.S. FTA policy - most represent the dynamics and impacts of President and Congress on the FTA policy formation. The research shows that among the three models of decision-making entities of foreign policy - President, Congress, and Interaction, the President model best explains the decision-making of FTA policies. President controls enormous external and int..
人類安全的概念首次出現在聯合國開發計畫署(United Nations Development Programme, UNDP)於 1994 年出版的人類發展報告之中,自此 之後,人類安全與人類發展等概念廣為各國採用與學界討論。其中位於東南亞的泰國,於 1997 年遭受亞洲金融風暴的襲擊後,在泰皇蒲美蓬 (Bhumibol Adulyadej)的倡導之下,積極推動強調「以人民為主」(people- centered)的人類安全概念。雖然泰國在許多方面表現出對..
The concept of human security first appeared in the United Nations Development Programme’s (UNDP) 1994 Human Development Report. According to the report, the scope of human security should be broadened to include seven issues: economic security, food security, health security, environment security, personal security, community security and political security. Since then, concepts of human security and human development are widely adopted and implemented by states and commonly discussed in the academic world. Thailand ac..
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