本文主要關注後冷戰時期,面對中國崛起,美中兩強與以「竹子外交」聞名的泰國如何相互應對與影響?本文主要研究問題為:一、促成美中泰三方互動結構轉變之重要政治事件為何?二、美中泰三方互動是否存在第三方影響?三、美中泰三角關係內部行為如何相互影響?透過時間序列分析,統計結果佐證911事件對美中泰三角關係產生了結構轉變之效應,而中國政經因素與泰國內政因素之衝擊有限。此外,統計結果也證實美中泰三角關係中,美中互動將促成泰國利用對美政策加以平衡回應,顯示泰國面對大國政治的敏感與謹慎。
Facing China’s rise in the post-Cold War era, how do great powers, like the United States, China, and Thailand, who is famous for its bamboo strategy, interact with each other? This paper aims to answer the question by analyzing (1) what events cause structural changes in the triangle; (2) how the third-party effect works in this triangle; (3) how the three actors influence each other. By applying time-series analyses, statistical results show that the 911 attack had led to a structural change for the triangle. The impact of China’s political-economic factors and Thai politics was not as significant as expected. On the other hand, statistical results also reveal the pattern that Thailand tended to balance the US- China interactions with its policy toward the United States, which also indicates Thailand’s sensitivity and prudence to power politics.
中國大陸(Mainland China)做為社會科學學術研究對象,隨學科變遷以及兩岸情勢發展,在各時期有不同主題。承此,本文使用主題分析工具 (CATAR),對「中國大陸研究」期刊於 1998~2015 年刊載之論文,透過論文的篇名與摘要文字,從事主題群聚(clustering)分析,藉以辨識顯著的研究主題,及其關鍵字,並以此觀察各主題發展趨勢。結果呈現出「中國大陸研究」之 473 篇文章,可歸類為七大主題,每一主題各有關鍵字。從每個主題的發表量(包括「發表..
With the rapid development of cross-strait situation, “Mainland China” as a subject of social science studies reflects different topics in different eras. This study applies an automatic content analysis tool(CATAR)to analyze the journal “Mainland China Studies”(1998-2015)to observe research trends based on clustering of the texts from the title and abstract of each journal article. The results show that the 473 articles published by the journal are clustered into seven salient topics. By publication n..
本文分析美國貿易授權法時期(2002~2007年)FTA的簽訂策略。影響 美國簽訂FTA策略的因素大致可分為外在因素與國內因素兩類。外在因素包括了九一一恐怖攻擊事件、中國崛起、東亞經濟整合、歐盟東擴、WTO 談判受挫、FTA盛行,以及歐盟與中國在拉美的勢力逐漸擴張等因素。國內因素則是由於貿易授權法的通過,國會進一步賦予行政部門對外談判的權力與快速立法程序,使美國從過去強調多邊主義的政策,轉變為多邊主義與雙邊主義並行。美國採取競爭自由化的貿易政策,使用自由貿易..
This article analyzes the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) strategy adopted by the United States during the valid period of the Trade Promotion Authority Act (2002~2007). Because of the external factors, such as 911 terrorist attacks, rise of China, the economic integration of East Asia, EU’s expansion, the frustration of WTO negotiations, the fashion of FTA, the EU and China’s expanding influence toward Latin America, and other domestic factors such as the power of negotiation and the fast track procedure offered by th..
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