本文的目的在於探討蜜月期選舉時程如何在半總統制下,對前三大政黨在國會選舉時的表現,產生不同於在總統制下所產生的影響。本文認為,由於總統制與半總統制的權力分立程度不同,所以導引出來的蜜月期選舉效應也就相異。根據既有文獻可知,在總統制下,因為權力完全分立,總統黨與第三黨在以具有比例性的選制所進行的蜜月期國會大選中會選得比較好,但本文認為這個效應無法類推到半總統制國家。在半總統制下,因為權力只有部分分立,國會大選是行政權選舉的第二階段,所以即便在蜜月期選舉時程中,前兩大黨仍會選得比第三黨好,而和總統制國家的經驗不同。本研究分析半總統制民主國家的蜜月期選舉資料,並且針對各國的共治經驗以及臺灣的個案進行較為深入的探討,結果支持了本文的論點:相對於第二大黨,半總統制國家的第三大黨並不會因為蜜月期選舉時程,而選得比較好。文章最後也將簡短討論小黨在其他選舉時程下的可能發展。
This paper aims at exploring how semi-presidentialism differs from presidentialism in affecting electoral performance of three largest parties in honeymoon elections. This paper argues that different levels of power separation in presidentialism and semi-presidentialism explain why the effects of honeymoon elections vary. Many existent studies indicated that in presidential systems, with total power separation, the largest and the third largest parties would gain in honeymoon elections that used proportional electoral systems. The combined effect of honeymoon elections and proportional electoral systems does not exist in semi-presidential systems, however. In semi-presidentialism, there is only partial power separation, and parliamentary elections are generally second stages of executive elections. Therefore, in semi-presidentialism, honeymoon elections using proportional electoral systems tend to benefit the largest and the second largest parties. This study analyzes data from six honeymoon elections of four semi- presidential democracies, and discusses the cohabitation experiences of these countries. Empirical findings support the hypothesis of this paper. Possible effects of other electoral cycles on small parties’ electoral performance are also briefly discussed.
法國第五共和體制向為半總統制的主要原型典範,並為穩定半總統制的代表,但法國各界對此一制度設計一直有著許多爭論與修改意見。2007 年法國總統大選前,各主要政黨候選人紛紛提出「第六共和」(la VIe République)的憲政倡議。法國新任總統薩科奇(Nicolas Sarkozy)於 2008 年進行自 1958 年第五共和以來最大規模的一次修憲。修憲主要方向同時強化總統與國會的權力,在總統權力部分修憲後強化總統的國會咨文權,形同間接賦予總統的行政優勢..
The French Fifth Republic (la Ve République) is not only the prototype of semi-presidentialism but also the typical model of “stable semi- presidentialism,” of which the French political circle and academia have never stopped their criticism over the design of the French Fifth Republic and have consistently expressed their opinions of modification. Even before the 2007 French presidential election, most of the major parties simultaneously advocated a new constitutional engineering plans of “la VIe Républiq..
傳統的研究智慧中,總統制和兩黨制的配套被認為是一個民主國家較容易運作的組合。主要的理由是兩黨制較不可能出現意識形態的極化,以及因為兩個政黨需要贏得中間位置的選票,其可以促成政黨之間較溫和及向心的競爭,因而有助於總統制的運作。然而,近年來,一些兩黨總統制國家發生嚴重的憲政危機,甚至促成民主衰退。為何這些兩黨總統制國家會走上民主衰退的道路,是本文所要探索的研究問題。首先,本文透過對於拉丁美洲兩黨總統制國家的個案分析發現,憲政結構的因素如總統和國會的權力抗衡會影響..
Past research argues that presidentialism and two-party systems are workable combinations that can facilitate democratic stability. The causal mechanisms are that ideological polarization is less possible to appear in a two-party system, that two parties needing to win votes from the center encourages moderation, and that the absence of the extremist parties and the centripetal nature of party competition favor democratic stability. However, in recent years, some presidential countries with a two-party system in Latin America..
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