本文檢視 9 個在 2000 年至 2013 年與中華民國(以下簡稱臺灣)斷交的國家,以探討友邦與我斷交背後的中華人民共和國(以下稱中國)因素。本研究發現,對臺灣友邦來說,獲取來自中國在貿易、投資與金援的經濟考量,以及透過中國的支持提升其國際地位與穩固國內政權的政治考量,是影響友邦是否願意與臺灣延續外交關係的重要因素。大部分友邦在與臺灣斷交後,均能獲取大量來自中國的經濟與政治利益,即便是擁有長期穩固邦誼的友邦亦然。從友邦的角度來看,透過遊走於兩岸的外交競爭之中,讓臺灣與中國競租外交關係,能夠大幅提升其國家利益,因此道德與理想難以在極度現實的友邦爭奪戰中勝出。對臺灣而言,邦交國無法長期收買,只能短期租用,若維持邦交國數量仍是外交政策的重要目標,則臺灣恐需要更全盤地有彈性且客制化地制定出有效的經濟誘因,以提升與各國建交的可能性。
This paper investigates the underlying China factor that played out when nine countries ended diplomatic relations with the Republic of China (hereafter called ‘Taiwan’). Research shows acquiring economic benefits from China, in terms of trade, investment and foreign aid, securing China’s support for enhancing international status and consolidating domestic political power are important factors when an ally of Taiwan considers breaking ties. Most allies receive immediate and significant political and economic benefits from China, even those who have been allies of Taiwan for many years, as soon as they severe ties. They can greatly improve their national interests by capitalizing on the Taiwan-China diplomatic battle. Thus, Taiwan cannot win this fight by appealing to morals and ideals. Diplomatic allies are not for sale; Taiwan is only able to rent them for a while. If maintaining the number of diplomatic allies remains a priority for Taiwan, the government needs to come up with more comprehensive, flexible and customized economic incentives in order to(re-)establish diplomatic relationships with target countries.
近 400 年來的歐洲,是主權國家平等的「西發里亞體系」,以權力平衡維繫國際秩序;近 600 年以來的東亞,則是中國為天朝而四方小國臣服的「朝貢體系」,是上下層級的國際秩序。為何會有「朝貢體系」?它為何能運作?從現實主義式的觀點來看,「朝貢體系」只是一個包裝過的權力政治,骨子裡仍是物質上的利害與效益計算,中國霸權之下區域國家抵抗無望,不得不臣服。但是,從建構主義式的觀點來看,之所以會有「朝貢體系」的國際秩序,並不只是因為中國的強大,也是因為區域國家認同中國的..
For nearly four centuries, Europe had the so-called Westphalian System of sovereign states, in which balance of power was the basis of international order. In contrast, for nearly six centuries, East Asia had the so-called “tribute system,” a hierarchical order where China was the supreme leader. Why? From a realist perspective, the tribute system was just a wrapper over power politics based on material calculations of interest and benefit: East Asian countries had no choice but submission to China’s hegemon..
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