2008 年 9 月，美國、玻利維亞及委內瑞拉三國爆發令周邊國家擔憂的嚴重外交衝突事件。這個緊張情勢雖然在三方決定自我克制的情況下，除了相互驅逐大使，情勢並未惡化，但三方何以採取如此克制的作為，是筆者欲在本文探討的議題。本文利用傑維斯(Robert Jervis)1976年書中所提出決策者的認知、對他國意向的解讀、敵意的高低等認知心理途徑的核心概念，檢視 2008 年美、玻、委三國外交衝突事件中，三方究竟本於何種的利益考量或計算，才做出相互克制以緩解衝突的決定。本文發現促成美、玻、委三方 在 2008 年採取克制態度處理衝突事件的主要因素是，衝突事件當時的不一致訊息及複雜的情勢所致，因為在無法判定風險與代價高低時，決策者通常避免過早做出決定以減少錯誤，因而延後對外使用武力及衝突爆發的時間。
In September 2008, there was a serious diplomatic confrontation involving the United States, Bolivia, and Venezuela that alarmed other countries in the Western Hemisphere. The decision to exercise self-restraint on all sides meant that action was limited to the mutual expulsion of ambassadors and the crisis did not escalate. In this paper, the author studies why the three countries exercised such self-restraint. Robert Jervis’ core concepts of policymakers’ perceptions, the understanding of other countries’ intentions, and image of hostility are employed in examining why the three countries involved decided to back down from the confrontation. The author finds that the main reasons for this were inconsistent information and the complexity of the situation. In a situation in which it is impossible to calculate risks and costs, policymakers often postpone making decisions in order to minimize mistakes, thus deferring the use of military force and the outbreak of conflicts.
2011 年 5 月 2 日美國特種部隊攻擊賓拉登(Osama bin Laden)之住處並且結束長達十年對於頭號國際恐怖分子的追擊，在此之後，各國對於此事件的反應呈現出不同的面貌。本文將以實證方法研究美國與各國的外交關係、各國對賓拉登事件的反應、主要媒體評論之間的互動關連，整理出支持與不支持美國的總表。本研究亦將思考:在採取爭議性的方法達成其國家利益的同時，美國霸權是否可以在未來持盈保泰?本研究所採取的新聞分析方法，是否能夠提供外交政策研究更多的可能性? ..
As the U.S. special forces thundered into Bin Laden’s compound and terminated the decade long chase of the most wanted terrorist on May 2, 2011, the global reaction to this incident presented diverse versions for interpretation. This empirical study answers the questions: can the U.S. identify those who support or oppose its foreign policy by their reactions to the Bin Laden incident? By probing into the governmental archives and major media in selected countries, this research answers two more important questions: has ..
2007-08 年爆發全球金融危機後，美聯準會(Fed)實施三輪的量化寬鬆貨幣(QE)政策以支持金融穩定與刺激經濟成長。Fed 的 QE 政策導致美元貶值，這意味持有過半美國債券作為儲備貨幣之外國官方機構(Foreign Official Institutions, FOIs)，其國債部位將產生巨大之資本損失。強調新自由主義世界秩序重要性之國際政治經濟學文獻，在論述金融全球化時指出， Fed 的銀行紓困計畫對其他經濟體形成非意圖性之資本流動的外溢效果。藉由 ..
In the wake of the global financial crisis that struck the world in 2007- 08, the U.S. Federal Reserve(the Fed)has undertaken three rounds of quantitative easing(QE)in an effort to sustain financial stability and stimulate economic growth. However, the Fed’s QE policy inevitably resulted in dollar depreciation, which means a huge capital loss for foreign official institutions ( FOIs ) since FOIs hold more than half of the outstanding stock of U.S. Treasury securities as official reserve holdings. Existing International ..
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