2005年,印度與中國建立了「戰略合作夥伴關係」(strategic cooperative partnership),給予外界中印關係改善的印象。在現實情況中,中印的戰略夥伴關係呈現出在安全與經濟上的落差,較類似兩個原本敵意深重的發展中國家,為了經濟發展所進行的策略聯盟,以經濟發展為重,而與安全合作及解決主權與邊界爭議較無關。本文從決策者進行合作時的利益與成本考量的角度,探討中印「戰略夥伴關係」的發展前景。中印建構戰略夥伴關係,是決策者嘗試合作;是否能成功,取決於合作決策者認為合作能得到的利益比不合作得到的利益要來得高。在合作利益與各種合作成本的考量之下,包括決策者的政治利益與風險考量,形塑了中印戰略夥伴關係的原則以及特點,包括「發展中國家」身分、經濟主軸、強調平等、以及變動性。但是這些原則與特點,有時反而會增加中印之間的信任赤字,對於中印戰略夥伴關係的發展與政經與安全方面的合作,造成局限性。「戰略夥伴關係」是務實交往的策略之一,短期內可維持邊界的和平,但未來實質合作的發展性將可能受到限制。
In 2005, China and India established a “strategic cooperative partnership,” which led to rising optimism about China-India relations. This article discusses prospects of the China-India strategic partnership from the perspective of benefit and cost. The China-India strategic partnership is regarded as an attempt by the leaders of the two countries to change bilateral relations from non-cooperation to cooperation. The key to successful transformation lies in the fact that decision makers of both sides can recognize that common interests gained from cooperation is higher than interests gained from non-cooperation and independent action. A lack of mutual trust between China and India is the main reason for high costs of cooperation. The foundation and principles upon which the strategic partnership is constructed, characteristics of common interests including common identity as developing countries, economy focus, emphasis on equality, volatility, often increase the trust deficit. As a result, cooperation between China and India on politics, economy and security has been limited. For China and India, the strategic cooperative partnership has been a move of pragmatic engagement. In the short term, peace along the border can be maintained. However, substantial cooperation for mid- and long-term might be limited.
2017 年 6 月 18 日起,中印在洞朗地區(Doklam)對峙近兩月,造成中印邊界情況一時緊張,雖然兩方最後是在金磚五國峰會進行數日前解除對峙狀況,但是洞朗地區依然是餘波盪漾,兩方軍隊也並未撤軍,反而繼續在洞朗地區駐紮。洞朗事件爭論的焦點,表面雖然事涉洞朗的主權,但是深一層的原因可能是印度更擔心中方的修路行動將對印度的東北部,包括阿魯那恰爾邦(藏南地區),產生戰略威脅。洞朗事件後,中印在邊界的互動模式將有所改變,而邊界氣氛緊張,也影響邊界談判,雙方雖在..
A military standoff lasted for over two months in Doklam between China and India since mid-June 2017, causing tension at the border. Although eventually the two sides disengaged days before the BRICS Summit in Xiamen, tension and speculations lingered in Doklam and troops are seen stationed in the area even in winter. The incident originates from the sovereignty dispute of Doklam, but at a deeper level, India has been concerned that China’s road construction in the area would cause strategic threats to the northeast, in..
本文檢視2005年以降日印兩國建構在外交、經濟、與防衛等領域合作的制度化過程,是否意味著將邁向同盟關係發展。日印兩國與中共之間分別存在著領土主權爭議,再加上中共積極擴大在印太區域的軍事存在,平衡中共威脅成為日印發展戰略合作的重要動機。2014年9月,日印將兩國戰略合作關係提升為「特別戰略性全球夥伴關係」,勾勒出雙方戰略合作 的路線圖,以共同發展印太區域的自由、開放、繁榮,以及確保印太海洋的交通線安全。不過,受限於國內共識與軍事實力不足,以及擔憂中共採取反制措施,短期內日印兩國不可..
This article examines the institutionalized development of diplomatic, economic, and defense cooperation between Japan and India since 2005, and whether or not both countries will move toward an alliance. To clarify further, Japan and India have disputes over territorial sovereignty with China, and China has actively expanded its military presence in the Indo-Pacific region. Thus, balancing China’s threats has become an important motive for Japan- India to develop strategic cooperation. Since September 2014, Japan and India have promo..
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