過去的研究指出在 1996 至 2008 年臺灣四次總統選舉中,認同是一個影響選民投票抉擇的重要因素,在 2012 年的總統選舉中,認同是否仍然為一個重要的影響因素,是本文的主要探討問題。本文首先從認同理論的界限設定觀點,討論臺灣認同的階段,提出臺灣認同已從第一階段的「省籍」對立,到第二階段的「臺灣意識/中國意識」之爭,而在兩岸恢復交流後,因為認同界限的改變(臺灣 vs.中國),進入到第三階段的「國家認同」層次。在第三個階段,臺灣與中國之間存在文化聯繫與政治..
Previous studies show that identity is an important factor in voting choice in the past four Taiwanese presidential elections between 1996 and 2008. This paper aims to explore whether identity still retains its impact on voting choice in the 2012 presidential election. The author starts with the discussion on the development of the Taiwan identity. Theoretically, identity can be regarded as a type of boundary setting and its development includes three stages. The first stage is the distinction between Benshengren and Mainland..
本研究從民眾認知外在威脅的觀點,分析其在2020年的總統選舉中,如何影響其投票行為。在2019年的年初,中國國家主席習近平提出「一國兩制,台灣方案」之後,蔡英文總統給予強力的回應,伴隨同年六月間香港升高的「反送中運動」,讓中華民國會不會因為中國大陸的威脅而消失的「亡國感」發酵,成為影響2020年選舉的重要關鍵。 本研究運用在2020年的選舉前後執行的定群追蹤調查,分析民眾是否具有「亡國感」的感受。我們發現,擔心因為被中國大陸統一而讓中華民國消失的民眾比較較高,超過五成一。我們進一..
From the perspective of possible external threat, this study analyzes how voters’ perceptions of external threat might affect their vote choice in the 2020 Presidential election in Taiwan. After Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed the ‘one country, two systems’ Taiwan formula” in January of 2019, President Tsai Ing-wen gave a strong response. Along with the “Anti-Extradition Movement” in Hong Kong in June of the same year, the “sense of national subjugation (wangguo gan)” fermented by the pos..
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