經濟學界基於 1990 年代歐洲匯率機制危機的歷史教訓,與新近發展的內生整合理論,多認為即使無法擺脫馬斯垂克條約整合門檻的法規束縛,歐洲貨幣同盟至少應儘快邀請有意加入歐元區的歐盟東歐成員國,在此一過渡階段進行密切的經濟貨幣政策協調合作,以免再度發生匯率與金融危機。本文首先對經濟學界就歐洲貨幣同盟擴張議題,所發表的重要文獻進行評述。其次根據既有論點,以東歐經濟規模最大的捷克、匈牙利、波蘭作為研究對象,結合簡單的總體經濟模型與賽局分析概念,探討三國已為歐盟成員,且未來必以加入貨幣同盟為目標下,歐盟官方如改採內生整合理念,立即與之進行經濟貨幣政策協調合作,並協力穩定雙方的經濟金融發展,是否能夠互蒙利益,進而減低該國重蹈 1990 年代歐洲匯率機制採固定匯率與資本流動自由化,卻因欠缺國際經濟政策協調合作,以致引發匯率與金融危機的覆轍。模擬結果顯示,囿於目前進度,於 2010 年方有可能加入貨幣同盟的捷克,應有資格立即與歐洲中央銀行進行經濟政策協作,並有效降低過渡時期發生匯率與金融危機的風險。
Some economists believe that even if the Maastricht convergence criteria is indispensable, the European Monetary Union should at least invite Central and Eastern European countries to participate in economic policy coordination as soon as possible, on the basis of the theory of endogeneity and the experience of the ERM crisis in the 1990s. The purposes of this research are 1)to provide an economic literature review about the issue of EMU enlargement and 2)to determine whether a bilateral coalition of an accession country and the European Central Bank would eliminate the risk of an ERM II crisis occurring during the transitional period. The simulation results indicate that, at this moment, the Czech Republic is qualified under specific simulated shocks. By means of cooperation with the European Central Bank, its interest rate differential with respect to the euro area can be maintained at a lower level and therefore decreases the risk of suffering from substantial capital flows during the transition to the EMU.
隨著近年「印太」成為國際關係與外交研究的重要詞彙,歐盟於2021年4月首次提出「印太戰略」,並特別強調與東協在印太區域合作的重要性。事實上,歐盟自2010年代以來受到全球經濟重心東移、亞洲地緣政治競爭激烈等結構性因素影響,已加速與東協的「第三波區域間主義(Third Interregionalism)」發展;除與東協國家洽簽經濟協定,並於2020年底將原有與東協的對話夥伴關係升級為戰略夥伴關係。本文主張歐盟透過與東協國家洽簽經濟協定以增強其「印太戰略」的效力,而雙邊升級的關係不但強化東協..
Indo-Pacific strategies have become salient in international relations and diplomatic studies. In April 2021, the European Union (EU) for the first time declared its own Indo-Pacific strategy and emphasized the importance of cooperation with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). In fact, global systemic factors such as the shift of economic power to Asia and the intense geopolitical rivalry in the region have galvanized the evolution of the Third Interregionalism between the EU and ASEAN. Other than economic agreements, both b..
本文第一部分藉由現有的文獻回顧國際關係對於權力的探討以及貿易與權力的關係;在介紹歐洲聯盟(European Union,以下簡稱歐盟)貿易政策的基本框架後,接著探討歐盟實際的貿易政策作為,並且討論貿易政策背後的政治意涵;最後由國際關係理論以及上述的貿易政策,討論歐盟貿易政策的權力角色。歐盟由於先天上發展傳統軍武實力的限制,於是採取貿易、知識等非傳統權力手段來推動價值以及創造規範,在全球化的時代下構築其有別於傳統軍事強權的知識權力角色。 ..
The research is divided into three parts. The first part reviews the literatures regarding power and the relations between trade and power in IR studies. Secondly, this article chooses several EU’s trade policies in practice to discuss the political implications behind the trade policy. Finally, the research analyzes the role of power of EU’s trade through IR theories and the practical trade policies discussed above. Because of the inborn constraint on the development of traditional military capability, the EU use..
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