當前兩岸關係基本結構為「政治疏離、經濟融合」。因此,如何掌握經濟「影響」政治的力量,便成為前瞻兩岸未來的重要憑藉,另方面,如何利用或防範經濟左右政治的力量,則成為兩岸相互攻防的關鍵場域。故自胡錦濤主導對台政策後,即持續強化「寄希望於台灣人民」的各種所謂「惠台」措施,希望以此促進兩岸和平統一,但能否發揮其所期待的作用,迄今未見比較系統的評估,有鑒於此,本文根據近期民調資料,分別就一般民眾及目標社群進行觀察,分析其對中觀感與政治立場的變化,藉以蠡測此類「以經促統」政策的政治影響。根據本文發現,即便對岸傾力推出多項政策,其形象也確有改善,但卻未能扭轉台灣民眾的統獨立場、身分認同以及政黨傾向。兩岸關係的真正突破,仍寄望於兩岸領導更恢宏的胸襟與格局。
The confrontation across the Taiwan Strait has been extended from the Cold War years to the global era. Under the new circumstance, cross-Strait exchanges and contacts are not only close but also indispensible for both. And, such socioeconomic ties can be easily employed as instruments to achieve political goals. Motivated by the logic, after Hu Jintao being in charge, China has shifted its Taiwan policy from “more sticks” to “extra carrots.” The core elements of Hu’s economic statecraft are “favor-grant policies” (huitai zhengce) targeting specific Taiwanese social groups, which embodies the spirit of Hu’s “new thinking,” i.e., “counting on the Taiwanese people.” But are these policies really effective in bidding for Taiwanese heart and, in the end, breaking the current cross-Strait stalemate? According to our survey data, we argue that Hu’s policy does make considerable impact on the image of China among Taiwanese but have little or no effects on the identity of Taiwanese, and thus is probably unable to reshape the future of cross- Strait relations in the direction China wishes.
本文探究歐盟整合過程中出現的多樣性整合模式,並進而探討不同的整合模式對兩岸關係的適用性為何。依據「國家認同與定位的相關性」及「是否為領導或創始國」等兩項變數,本文區分出歐盟四種整合模式:德國模式對整合運動的承諾與支持度最高,其次為芬蘭模式與法國模式,英國模式則為最低。基於台灣與中國大陸政府對台灣主權存在爭議的現實,持願景路線的德國或法國模式均無法適用於兩岸關係的整合模式,兩岸整合前景最好的情況為芬蘭模式,最不理想為英國模式。模型化的結果因而可以解釋為何兩岸日..
This paper investigates the diverse approaches of EU members’ integration with the EU through modeling, and assesses the applicability of each model to the Taiwan-China relations. Building upon two variables – ‘the association with national identity and reorientation’, and ‘being the leading or founding member’ – four EU members’ integrative models stand out. The German model is proven to be the most integrationist, followed by the Finnish and the French models. The UK model app..
「自決」一詞,在民主政治的發展上,主要是指人民享有選擇自己政府與統治形式的權利。而自決運動,在多元面貌的發展之下,卻是變得極為複雜而難解。國際政治與國際法在不同時空背景之下,賦予自決不同的定義與權利。而20世紀90年代以後的自決運動實踐,已經遠遠超過60年代殖民地解放運動的範圍。造成此一急遽發展,歸因於蘇聯解體與冷戰時代的結束、國際政治大環境對人權原則的重視,以及近來開放民主與自由經濟理論的提倡等三大因素。雖然當前的國際法多不願意明白承認殖民地..
Self-determination is a concept in principle, by which the people having rights to form their own state or government. However, the movement of self-determination of the 20th century is becoming a very complicated issue with various definitions under international politics and laws. Since the 1990s, the practice of self-determination movement has far exceeded the legal framework, as originally considered for the independence of post-war colonies in the 1960s. The increasing relevance and importance of the problem in secession are due ..
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