當前兩岸關係基本結構為「政治疏離、經濟融合」。因此，如何掌握經濟「影響」政治的力量，便成為前瞻兩岸未來的重要憑藉，另方面，如何利用或防範經濟左右政治的力量，則成為兩岸相互攻防的關鍵場域。故自胡錦濤主導對台政策後，即持續強化「寄希望於台灣人民」的各種所謂「惠台」措施，希望以此促進兩岸和平統一，但能否發揮其所期待的作用，迄今未見比較系統的評估，有鑒於此，本文根據近期民調資料，分別就一般民眾及目標社群進行觀察，分析其對中觀感與政治立場的變化，藉以蠡測此類「以經促統」政策的政治影響。根據本文發現，即便對岸傾力推出多項政策，其形象也確有改善，但卻未能扭轉台灣民眾的統獨立場、身分認同以及政黨傾向。兩岸關係的真正突破，仍寄望於兩岸領導更恢宏的胸襟與格局。

The confrontation across the Taiwan Strait has been extended from the Cold War years to the global era. Under the new circumstance, cross-Strait exchanges and contacts are not only close but also indispensible for both. And, such socioeconomic ties can be easily employed as instruments to achieve political goals. Motivated by the logic, after Hu Jintao being in charge, China has shifted its Taiwan policy from “more sticks” to “extra carrots.” The core elements of Hu’s economic statecraft are “favor-grant policies” (huitai zhengce) targeting specific Taiwanese social groups, which embodies the spirit of Hu’s “new thinking,” i.e., “counting on the Taiwanese people.” But are these policies really effective in bidding for Taiwanese heart and, in the end, breaking the current cross-Strait stalemate? According to our survey data, we argue that Hu’s policy does make considerable impact on the image of China among Taiwanese but have little or no effects on the identity of Taiwanese, and thus is probably unable to reshape the future of cross- Strait relations in the direction China wishes.