經濟學界基於 1990 年代歐洲匯率機制危機的歷史教訓,與新近發展的內生整合理論,多認為即使無法擺脫馬斯垂克條約整合門檻的法規束縛,歐洲貨幣同盟至少應儘快邀請有意加入歐元區的歐盟東歐成員國,在此一過渡階段進行密切的經濟貨幣政策協調合作,以免再度發生匯率與金融危機。本文首先對經濟學界就歐洲貨幣同盟擴張議題,所發表的重要文獻進行評述。其次根據既有論點,以東歐經濟規模最大的捷克、匈牙利、波蘭作為研究對象,結合簡單的總體經濟模型與賽局分析概念,探討三國已為歐盟成員,..
Some economists believe that even if the Maastricht convergence criteria is indispensable, the European Monetary Union should at least invite Central and Eastern European countries to participate in economic policy coordination as soon as possible, on the basis of the theory of endogeneity and the experience of the ERM crisis in the 1990s. The purposes of this research are 1)to provide an economic literature review about the issue of EMU enlargement and 2)to determine whether a bilateral coalition of an accession country and ..
本研究透過列項實驗(list experiment)指出傳統民意調查測量方法的侷限性,特別是在攸關民眾上戰場作戰的問題方面,解讀民調數字需審慎考量因「社會期許偏誤」(social desirability bias)造成的高估情形。具體而言,本文結合網路調查與列項實驗,探討社會期許偏誤對民眾上戰場意願的影響程度,並利用針對列項實驗所發展出的多變數迴歸分析(multivariate regression analysis)方法,檢視影響民眾上戰場意願的成因。結果顯示若中共武力犯台,民眾願為..
Through a list experiment, this study points out the limitation of public opinion survey. Especially when it comes to the issue related to people’s willingness to fight in a war, interpreting the poll requires careful consideration of overestimation caused by “social desirability bias.” By combing an online survey and list experiments, this paper examines how social desirability bias impacts Taiwanese’s determination to fight. The results show that if China invades Taiwan by force, about 64% are willing to fight for T..
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