經濟學界基於 1990 年代歐洲匯率機制危機的歷史教訓,與新近發展的內生整合理論,多認為即使無法擺脫馬斯垂克條約整合門檻的法規束縛,歐洲貨幣同盟至少應儘快邀請有意加入歐元區的歐盟東歐成員國,在此一過渡階段進行密切的經濟貨幣政策協調合作,以免再度發生匯率與金融危機。本文首先對經濟學界就歐洲貨幣同盟擴張議題,所發表的重要文獻進行評述。其次根據既有論點,以東歐經濟規模最大的捷克、匈牙利、波蘭作為研究對象,結合簡單的總體經濟模型與賽局分析概念,探討三國已為歐盟成員,且未來必以加入貨幣同盟為目標下,歐盟官方如改採內生整合理念,立即與之進行經濟貨幣政策協調合作,並協力穩定雙方的經濟金融發展,是否能夠互蒙利益,進而減低該國重蹈 1990 年代歐洲匯率機制採固定匯率與資本流動自由化,卻因欠缺國際經濟政策協調合作,以致引發匯率與金融危機的覆轍。模擬結果顯示,囿於目前進度,於 2010 年方有可能加入貨幣同盟的捷克,應有資格立即與歐洲中央銀行進行經濟政策協作,並有效降低過渡時期發生匯率與金融危機的風險。
Some economists believe that even if the Maastricht convergence criteria is indispensable, the European Monetary Union should at least invite Central and Eastern European countries to participate in economic policy coordination as soon as possible, on the basis of the theory of endogeneity and the experience of the ERM crisis in the 1990s. The purposes of this research are 1)to provide an economic literature review about the issue of EMU enlargement and 2)to determine whether a bilateral coalition of an accession country and the European Central Bank would eliminate the risk of an ERM II crisis occurring during the transitional period. The simulation results indicate that, at this moment, the Czech Republic is qualified under specific simulated shocks. By means of cooperation with the European Central Bank, its interest rate differential with respect to the euro area can be maintained at a lower level and therefore decreases the risk of suffering from substantial capital flows during the transition to the EMU.
歐盟整合成員國政策並建立監控外資活動機制的努力,自2017年9月執委會提議以來,進展迅速並已於2019年2月獲歐洲議會立法通過,相關文件均以中國大陸資金在歐併購為案例。本文回顧歐中投資爭議開端,申論其源於對外經貿與產業發展理念差異,而近期中方透過「一帶一路」、「中國製造2025」指令下的海外投資併購,試圖同時解決產能過剩與產業升級目標,使雙邊爭端白熱化。除前述中方政策對歐盟可能影響外,本文亦將討論歐盟因應策略,中方可能反制措施,以及當前情勢對於歐中雙方後續作..
In this paper, we argue that China’s current strategies including Made in China 2025 and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) with large scale mergers and acquisitions are still consistent with the so-called “divide and rule” principle with respect to the European Union (EU) since 2005. Furthermore, there will be some leading and potential industries through the above approach, even though the problems of overcapacity and inefficiency still exist. On the basis of the bilateral trade and investment strategies, we a..
請輸入想查詢的期刊標題、關鍵字、作者相關資訊. Please enter the journal title, keywords, and author-related information you want to query.