經濟學界基於 1990 年代歐洲匯率機制危機的歷史教訓,與新近發展的內生整合理論,多認為即使無法擺脫馬斯垂克條約整合門檻的法規束縛,歐洲貨幣同盟至少應儘快邀請有意加入歐元區的歐盟東歐成員國,在此一過渡階段進行密切的經濟貨幣政策協調合作,以免再度發生匯率與金融危機。本文首先對經濟學界就歐洲貨幣同盟擴張議題,所發表的重要文獻進行評述。其次根據既有論點,以東歐經濟規模最大的捷克、匈牙利、波蘭作為研究對象,結合簡單的總體經濟模型與賽局分析概念,探討三國已為歐盟成員,且未來必以加入貨幣同盟為目標下,歐盟官方如改採內生整合理念,立即與之進行經濟貨幣政策協調合作,並協力穩定雙方的經濟金融發展,是否能夠互蒙利益,進而減低該國重蹈 1990 年代歐洲匯率機制採固定匯率與資本流動自由化,卻因欠缺國際經濟政策協調合作,以致引發匯率與金融危機的覆轍。模擬結果顯示,囿於目前進度,於 2010 年方有可能加入貨幣同盟的捷克,應有資格立即與歐洲中央銀行進行經濟政策協作,並有效降低過渡時期發生匯率與金融危機的風險。
Some economists believe that even if the Maastricht convergence criteria is indispensable, the European Monetary Union should at least invite Central and Eastern European countries to participate in economic policy coordination as soon as possible, on the basis of the theory of endogeneity and the experience of the ERM crisis in the 1990s. The purposes of this research are 1)to provide an economic literature review about the issue of EMU enlargement and 2)to determine whether a bilateral coalition of an accession country and the European Central Bank would eliminate the risk of an ERM II crisis occurring during the transitional period. The simulation results indicate that, at this moment, the Czech Republic is qualified under specific simulated shocks. By means of cooperation with the European Central Bank, its interest rate differential with respect to the euro area can be maintained at a lower level and therefore decreases the risk of suffering from substantial capital flows during the transition to the EMU.
歐洲聯盟 2004 年 5 月以及 2007 年 1 月的東擴之舉係 1950 年代以來歐洲統合過程中重要的發展過程。這不僅是使得中東歐地區國家加入歐盟,更重要的意義在於將不同地區文化與結構透過改革的轉軌過程中融入了歐盟的價值。因此,在歐盟未來的主要擴大議程中也包含了土耳其、克羅埃西亞以及西巴爾半島地區國家。對於歐盟而言,加強並保障有關區域和平、穩定、 繁榮、民主、人權以及歐洲法治的理念價值是相當重要的。 對土耳其而言,與歐盟的關係已歷..
The Eastern Enlargement of the European Union in the year of 2004 and 2007 is one of the most significant developments in the process of European Integration since the 1950s. And with Turkey and the Western Balkan States, enlargement will continue to be one of the major issues on the political agendas. More recently, the EU has inspired tremendous reforms in Turkey, Croatia and the Western Balkans. It is vitally important for the EU to ensure a carefully managed enlargement process that extends peace, stability, prosperity, d..
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