阿拉伯之春是於 2010 年年底,由突尼西亞開始發生一連串位於包括中東與北非地區的國內政治動盪事件。多數人認為,這與當地的威權政治,以及經濟發展遲緩有高度相關,因此,本文首先探討中東北非地區內戰可能的發生原因,包括經常被提及的政治與經濟因素,另外再輔以中東北非地區特殊的區域環境解釋,包括了此區特有的豐富天然資源,以及造成此次阿拉伯革命的連鎖反應。作者發現,經濟發展非常顯著地影響著內部衝突發生的機率,包括良好的發展以及開放的貿易政策,而民主與衝突則顯示「倒 U 型」 的分布,過渡政體是最容易發生內部衝突的政體,而從威權到過渡政體間的衝突機率是升高的,而從過渡政體往民主的衝突機率則減少。自然資源的產出與衝突有顯著的正相關,但是並非意味著此區生產最多的原油是引戰的原罪。最後,本文證實在此區衝突的傳染力是存在的,但僅限於「鄰國」,若超越了國界,這樣的感染力也隨之消失。由於本研究為從 1946~2012 年,研究對象包括 24 國的時間序列與橫斷面資料(time-series, cross-sectional, TSCS),以及依變數為二元類別變數(binary outcome variable),因此採用廣義估計方程式(General Estimating Equation, GEE)作為本文的主要研究 方法。
Since the Arab Spring occurred in the end of 2010, Middle East and North Africa(MENA)regions have drawn attentions from international society because of turbulent domestic events. Some nations in this area have leaders who stay in office for a very long time(e.g. Libya and Egypt), and some nations suffer from slow economic development(e.g. Algeria). Therefore, this study tries to review the previous studies on the civil war, focusing on political and economic determinants, to examine if political institution and economic development affect the onset of internal conflict in the region. The results show an inverted U-shape relationship between democracy and the onset of conflicts. Autocracy is proven to be the most chaotic regime. However, the likelihood of conflict is decreasing as economy develops. In addition, the author investigates two regional factors – natural resources and conflict contagion in this study – and finds significant relationships. In this study, data are time-series and cross-sectional(TSCS), including MENA countries from 1946 to 2011, while The General Estimating Equation(GEE)are applied as the econometric model.
相對於美國、中國大陸及許多主要大國從事「公眾外交」實踐及其理論化的中英文研究文獻汗牛充棟,中小型國家的經驗大致上較少受到關注。本論文假定加拿大在公眾外交實踐經驗有其特殊貢獻與研究價值,進而透過探索加拿大公眾外交的發展、歸納其所呈現的形態與內外連結特徵、分析其實踐優劣與挑戰來作印證。加拿大公眾外交的實踐可歸納出兩大主要特徵:一方面,其強調的是結合對外與對內雙重面向的溝通以及政府與人民雙向關係並重。其涉及的主要標的,並非局限於國外的民間團體、意見領袖與人民,也包..
While existing literature focuses primarily on the practices of public diplomacy(PD)of Great Powers, such as the United States and the People’s Republic of China, and much of PD’s conceptualization was often based on their experiences, less attention was paid to middle or small countries. It is assumed that the Canadian experience in this regard is insightful and deserves a systemic study. This paper explored the development of Canadian PD, generalized its patterns with an emphasis on its foreign-domestic linkage...
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