本研究目的在建立美國傳統戰略模糊與臺灣避險策略間之理論關聯性。主要假設當臺灣從美國獲得較多且明確之安全承諾時，將可能更依賴美國安全保護傘，進而降低自身制定外交政策之自主與靈活性。過去數十年，華盛頓持續且長期的安全承諾，即有可能限制臺灣的避險策略選擇。本研究的實證證據，主要探討川普與拜登政府任內，華府戰略模糊逐漸轉變為戰略清晰下，臺北在美中兩強之間的外交政策。此外，藉由將避險的理論「模型化」，並區別避險與樞紐的關係，是本文另一個研究貢獻。

The study aims to establish a theoretical connection between strategic ambiguity and hedging policy. The assumption is that as Taiwan receives more security assurance and clarity from the United States, it may rely more on the U.S. security umbrella, reducing its autonomy and flexibility in crafting its foreign policy. Over time, consistent and prolonged security commitments from the United States could limit Taiwan’s hedging options, as it increasingly aligns with the U.S. position. The empirical evidence in this article explores how..

自我國與美國斷交後，過去40年來，美國政府對臺軍售始終為美國作為兩岸關係第三方影響的重要課題，亦為在兩岸間「衝突預防」的政策工具。美國對於臺灣的安全承諾，長期擺盪在安全利益與民主聲譽之間，亦根源於行政部門和國會之間的立場分野。有別於過去的分析途徑，本文從外交政策分析(FPA)的理論視角切入，以總統決策機制為分析單元，討論美國總統在對臺軍售決策機制中究竟扮演的關鍵角色，以總統任期、領導人安全觀及府會結構三項解釋變數，檢視歷屆美國總統對於公布軍售和..

Since the United States switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing, the U.S arms sales to Taiwan have been a critical issue affecting the Cross-Strait relations for the past 40 years. In order to preserve stability in the Taiwan Strait, maintaining sufficient self-defense capability for Taiwan has been the major goal of the United States. However, the U.S security commitment to Taiwan has long been fluctuating between security interests and democratic reputation. It also depends on the stance of the executive bran..