過去研究已指出選舉輸家和贏家在民主滿意度和政治支持上具有顯著的差異,然而卻鮮少有研究檢視選舉輸家和贏家在情感極化的程度上是否有顯著的不同。本研究認為在選舉競爭激烈的情況下,選舉輸家對於勝選者缺乏信心,不信任勝選者會回應其需求,加深其與勝選陣營之間的鴻溝,進而具有較高的情感極化程度。另一方面,選舉贏家則因為處於勝選、掌握政治權力的一方,對於敵對陣營可能較具有包容力,因此會具有較低的情感極化程度。此外,本研究進一步提出選舉輸家/贏家與情感極化之間的關係會受到治效能感的調節作用而產生異質性的影..
Previous research has pointed out significant differences between electoral losers and winners in terms of democratic satisfaction and political support. However, there has been scarce examination of whether there are significant differences in affective polarization between electoral losers and winners. This study argues that in fiercely competitive elections, electoral losers lack confidence in the winners and distrust that their needs will be addressed, deepening the divide between them and the winning camp, and leading to higher levels ..
印尼總統佐科威於2014年首次贏得總統大選後,在2019年再次勝選並 連任。有別於既有文獻以社群媒體、認同政治、經濟投票等因素來解釋佐 科威於2019年勝選連任的可能原因,本文利用縣市層級的資料,探討侍 從主義如何對於佐科威競選科威在該縣市獲得較多選票。綜言之,本研究的貢獻在於從侍從主義的角 度,對於佐科威2019年的選舉表現提出重要的補充觀點。連任的選舉表現造成影響。本文主張,在佐科 威執政前的恩庇侍從關係,主要強調社區與個別地方政治人物的角色;而 在佐科威執政期間,可觀察到政黨在侍從..
After first winning the presidential election in 2014, Indonesian President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) was reelected in 2019. Unlike existing literature that explains Jokowi’s 2019 victory through factors such as social media, identity politics, and economic voting, this article uses city/regency-level data to explore how clientelism impacts Jokowi’s electoral performance. It argues that prior to Jokowi’s administration, patron-client relationships primarily emphasized the roles of community and individual local politicians. Dur..
「習近平之發言作為」成為觀察中共政治情勢的核心指標,其個人思想也成為中共政治的重要動力。本研究試圖回答:「習近平意識形態體系特徵與其思想時序變化」,特別是與毛主義的關係。本研究之方法為「計算政治學/計算中國研究」,使用計算機為核心來探索人力難以發現的部分。具體而言,蒐集「習近平系列重要講話資料庫」中之講話文本,作為分析語料。使用程式技術如文字探勘(text mining)、自然語言處理(natural language processing)與深度學習(deep learning)演算法..
Xi Jinping’s activities have become the core focus of the CCP’s political landscape, and his ideology has emerged as a significant driving force in Chinese politics. This study aims to answer the question: “What are the characteristics of Xi Jinping’s ideological system and its chronological evolution?” particularly in relation to Maoism. The methodology of this research is rooted in “computational politics/computational Chinese studies,” utilizing computational methods to explore aspects that are d..
瑞典與芬蘭是歐洲實施中立政策歷史相當悠久的國家,長期以來這兩國選擇中立作為外交政策主軸,不過2022年2月俄烏戰爭爆發後這兩國決意擺脫中立、改以申請加入北約為其新的外交目標,此種策略轉變對兩國與歐洲安全形成很大衝擊。芬蘭已於2023年4月4日加入北約,2023年7月北約峰會召開之際,土耳其與匈牙利亦表態支持瑞典入約。本文所欲探討者乃是分析這兩國為何調整其長久以來堅守的中立政策理念,過往多數觀點認為瑞、芬兩國拋棄中立乃因俄烏戰爭威脅所致,但實際觀察兩國政策演變,俄烏戰爭僅是政策轉折最後階段..
Sweden and Finland are countries with a long history of neutral policies, and they have traditionally chosen neutrality as their main direction for foreign policy. However, after the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War in February 2022, both countries have decided to abandon neutrality and adopt joining NATO as their new security strategy. This disruptive evolution of diplomatic strategy has had a significant impact on the security of both countries and Europe as a whole. As of the writing of this article, Finland has already joined NATO on..
美中貿易戰宣告了兩國在國際政治的競爭局勢正式展開,2019年後的疫情更形加劇了兩國彼此的競爭關係。然而,美中對立下新冷戰的政治兩極化一定會造成國際貿易關係的兩極化嗎?世界各國真的會各自歸隊,在美國與中國之間擇一而處,形成兩極對立的局勢嗎?還是口頭上與行為上有差異,仍然依照國家自身的利益分別和美國和中國進行實質上的往來。本文即探討這個問題,比較疫情前後,國際貿易局勢的變化到底是趨向兩極化還是非兩極化。本文認為,新冷戰的局勢下,美中對立造成的政治兩極化無法避免,但政治兩極化不等於貿易關係兩極..
The U.S.-China trade war indicates a confrontation between the U.S. and China, and the pandemic problem since 2019 deteriorates the confrontation. However, will political polarization due to the new cold war between the U.S. and China lead to economic polarization? Do countries in the whole world choose their own sides between the U.S. and China, establishing two blocs and competing? Or countries in the whole world behave inconsistently in terms of verbal promises and practical actions. National interest is still their benchmark to have sub..
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