當前兩岸關係基本結構為「政治疏離、經濟融合」。因此，如何掌握經濟「影響」政治的力量，便成為前瞻兩岸未來的重要憑藉，另方面，如何利用或防範經濟左右政治的力量，則成為兩岸相互攻防的關鍵場域。故自胡錦濤主導對台政策後，即持續強化「寄希望於台灣人民」的各種所謂「惠台」措施，希望以此促進兩岸和平統一，但能否發揮其所期待的作用，迄今未見比較系統的評估，有鑒於此，本文根據近期民調資料，分別就一般民眾及目標社群進行觀察，分析其對中觀感與政治立場的變化，藉以蠡測此類「以經促統」政策的政治影響。根據本文發現，即便對岸傾力推出多項政策，其形象也確有改善，但卻未能扭轉台灣民眾的統獨立場、身分認同以及政黨傾向。兩岸關係的真正突破，仍寄望於兩岸領導更恢宏的胸襟與格局。
The confrontation across the Taiwan Strait has been extended from the Cold War years to the global era. Under the new circumstance, cross-Strait exchanges and contacts are not only close but also indispensible for both. And, such socioeconomic ties can be easily employed as instruments to achieve political goals. Motivated by the logic, after Hu Jintao being in charge, China has shifted its Taiwan policy from “more sticks” to “extra carrots.” The core elements of Hu’s economic statecraft are “favor-grant policies” (huitai zhengce) targeting specific Taiwanese social groups, which embodies the spirit of Hu’s “new thinking,” i.e., “counting on the Taiwanese people.” But are these policies really effective in bidding for Taiwanese heart and, in the end, breaking the current cross-Strait stalemate? According to our survey data, we argue that Hu’s policy does make considerable impact on the image of China among Taiwanese but have little or no effects on the identity of Taiwanese, and thus is probably unable to reshape the future of cross- Strait relations in the direction China wishes.
自 Dittmer 開啟戰略三角的國際政治理論後，三邊戰略探討便成為頗具詮釋力的理論模型。從冷戰時期的「美、蘇、中」戰略三角到近期的其它戰略三角，如「美、中、歐盟」、「美、中、印度」等等，族衍甚繁。 然而在東亞區域間的「美、中、台」戰略三角，隨著「中國崛起」的世界性影響與美國的東亞區域霸權穩定與利益，更使「美、中、台」戰略三角凸顯其重要性與區域霸權穩定或轉移的關鍵。以「美、蘇、中」戰略三角為立論基礎的 Dittmer 戰略三角論，是基於..
Since Lowell Dittmer proposed the theory of strategic triangle, the theory has become a powerful explanatory model that developed various triangles from the US-Soviet Union-China strategic triangle in the Cold War to the other more recent triangles like the US-China-EU and the US-China- India. Among various triangles, the US-China-Taiwan triangle has evolved into a relatively more critical one in terms of its impact on the regional hegemonic stability or shift in East Asia due to the rise of China that is shaking the US hegem..
台海兩岸自 1949 年分裂至今，雙方的政策雖歷經不同階段的調整，但仍無法突破僵局。中共始終不放棄以武力方式解決台灣問題的可能性，堅持對台灣使用武力乃其處理國內事務之主權合法行使，不受國際法的限制。本文從國際法禁止使用武力原則的目的與相關實踐來看，此原則不僅針對國家，也對包括事實實體在內的其它國際法人適用。現階段台灣在國際法下的國家地位雖有些爭議，但不影響其作為一個受國際法規範與保障的事實實體。不過，在兩岸關係中，由於中共堅持台灣問題為中國內政，且國際社會對..
The stand-off across the Taiwan Strait has, since 1949, continued to divide the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Republic of China (Taiwan). The PRC still insists that the Cross-Strait situation is an internal affair of China, and thus it upholds the position that using force against Taiwan is a legitimate exercise of sovereignty under international law. This article argues that, based on relevant practices, non-use of force as a principle under customary international law applies not only to States, but also to..
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