阿拉伯之春是於 2010 年年底,由突尼西亞開始發生一連串位於包括中東與北非地區的國內政治動盪事件。多數人認為,這與當地的威權政治,以及經濟發展遲緩有高度相關,因此,本文首先探討中東北非地區內戰可能的發生原因,包括經常被提及的政治與經濟因素,另外再輔以中東北非地區特殊的區域環境解釋,包括了此區特有的豐富天然資源,以及造成此次阿拉伯革命的連鎖反應。作者發現,經濟發展非常顯著地影響著內部衝突發生的機率,包括良好的發展以及開放的貿易政策,而民主與衝突則顯示「倒 U 型」 的分布,過渡政體是最容易發生內部衝突的政體,而從威權到過渡政體間的衝突機率是升高的,而從過渡政體往民主的衝突機率則減少。自然資源的產出與衝突有顯著的正相關,但是並非意味著此區生產最多的原油是引戰的原罪。最後,本文證實在此區衝突的傳染力是存在的,但僅限於「鄰國」,若超越了國界,這樣的感染力也隨之消失。由於本研究為從 1946~2012 年,研究對象包括 24 國的時間序列與橫斷面資料(time-series, cross-sectional, TSCS),以及依變數為二元類別變數(binary outcome variable),因此採用廣義估計方程式(General Estimating Equation, GEE)作為本文的主要研究 方法。
Since the Arab Spring occurred in the end of 2010, Middle East and North Africa(MENA)regions have drawn attentions from international society because of turbulent domestic events. Some nations in this area have leaders who stay in office for a very long time(e.g. Libya and Egypt), and some nations suffer from slow economic development(e.g. Algeria). Therefore, this study tries to review the previous studies on the civil war, focusing on political and economic determinants, to examine if political institution and economic development affect the onset of internal conflict in the region. The results show an inverted U-shape relationship between democracy and the onset of conflicts. Autocracy is proven to be the most chaotic regime. However, the likelihood of conflict is decreasing as economy develops. In addition, the author investigates two regional factors – natural resources and conflict contagion in this study – and finds significant relationships. In this study, data are time-series and cross-sectional(TSCS), including MENA countries from 1946 to 2011, while The General Estimating Equation(GEE)are applied as the econometric model.
德國地方政府的行政區域重劃源自十九世紀末,甚至更早以前,不過,實施的範圍有限,而且主要集中在工業發達的魯爾區(Ruhrgebiet)。一直到 1960 年代因為社會變遷、經濟蓬勃發展,機動性的提高,人民對地方政府的要求不斷提高,而地方政府卻因為規模太小、行政能力薄弱,難以滿足人民的需求。而另一方面,由於地方自治的實質內容減少,地方自治的意義不斷被質疑,於是為了強化地方政府的治理能力、提升地方政府的行政能力和效率以及落實地方自治的精神,德國各邦政府從 1960..
The territorial reform in Germany at the local government level began in the end of the 19th century or even earlier. But the scale and the scope of its implementation was very limited and happened in the majority of cases in the Ruhr area. During the 1960s, the social situation had changed greatly, the economy boomed, and the mobility increased; the demand of people for local government had gradually enhanced on the one hand, but the real substance of self-administration had evidently reduced, so that the meaning of self- ad..
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