2008 年 9 月，美國、玻利維亞及委內瑞拉三國爆發令周邊國家擔憂的嚴重外交衝突事件。這個緊張情勢雖然在三方決定自我克制的情況下，除了相互驅逐大使，情勢並未惡化，但三方何以採取如此克制的作為，是筆者欲在本文探討的議題。本文利用傑維斯(Robert Jervis)1976年書中所提出決策者的認知、對他國意向的解讀、敵意的高低等認知心理途徑的核心概念，檢視 2008 年美、玻、委三國外交衝突事件中，三方究竟本於何種的利益考量或計算，才做出相互克制以緩解衝突的決..

In September 2008, there was a serious diplomatic confrontation involving the United States, Bolivia, and Venezuela that alarmed other countries in the Western Hemisphere. The decision to exercise self-restraint on all sides meant that action was limited to the mutual expulsion of ambassadors and the crisis did not escalate. In this paper, the author studies why the three countries exercised such self-restraint. Robert Jervis’ core concepts of policymakers’ perceptions, the understanding of other countries’ ..

歐債危機的發生表現在數個歐元會員國面臨高政府赤字、高負債的財政困境，故被統稱為歐債危機，但事實上此一危機是由數個性質不盡相同的個別危機所組成:希臘危機本質上為一財政紀律蕩然的政府治理危機;愛爾蘭與西班牙危機則為美國次貸危機所引發的不動產資產泡沫與銀行危機;義大利與葡萄牙危機則涉及結構性的長期成長危機。依此本質而言，德國所推動的撙節方案與財政公約僅涉及到公部門改革與恢復財政紀律等面向，只能對危機的終結提供部分的答案。財政紀律的執行與危機的解決有賴成長與就業的提..

The European sovereign debt crisis emerged from a few euro members being stuck with high-deficits and high-indebtedness, and thus is oversimplified to be referred to as the euro debt crisis. It, in fact, consists of several individual crises with different causes. The Greek crisis was a governance crisis that lacks of fiscal disciple by nature; the Irish and Spanish crises were the bubble crisis of the property sector and banking crisis caused by the US sub-prime crisis; the Italian and Portuguese crises involve more structur..