對於強權並存且有爆發戰爭可能性的國際格局，戰爭由誰引發在學界的論點迥異。權力轉移理論認為崛起國基於不滿現狀，會對主導強權發起戰爭；另有聲音則認為衰退的國家基於預防性動機，會對崛起的對手採取行動；然而，權力轉移理論與預防性動機的論述，主要關注於戰爭的發動，此觀點反映一種以「戰爭」進行解析的框架，即探討國與國之間是否會發生戰爭。本研究則以另一個「非戰爭的攻防」的分析框架，論述主導強權與崛起國之間在兵戎之外的攻防行動。本文以美國在2022年施行的晶片與科學法案為例，論述美國對中國採行的非戰爭預防性舉措。該法案禁止受資助企業在中國及其他受關注國家，對相對先進的半導體進行重大擴產。

過往權力轉移理論的相關文獻，多是以戰爭為中心進行探討；本研究則為此理論提供更多非戰爭視角的探討，進行主導強權與崛起國之間的動態競爭分析。本文認為權力轉移理論偏重於崛起國是戰爭發起者的觀點，相對少關注主導強權面對崛起國時的反應及其可能採取的舉動。晶片與科學法案的排除中國及其他受關注國家的條款，顯現華盛頓對北京的警戒，這亦可理解為前者對後者採取「非戰爭的攻防」的預防性舉措。此舉應可視為美國對中國崛起的反應，因此若權力轉移理論的分析，能多加以關注主導強權面對崛起國時的反應及其可能採取的舉動，將能更全面解釋當今中美兩強博弈的動態變化。

In the international arena where powerful nations coexist, and the possibility of war exists, there are differing opinions on who triggers wars. Power transition theory suggests that a rising power will initiate war against a dominant power out of dissatisfaction with the status quo. Other argue that the declining state is motivated by preventive motivation to take action against rising adversary. However, both the power transition theory and the preventive motivation argument primarily focus on the initiation of war. This perspective reflects an analysis framework based on “war”, that is, to explore the possibility of war between states. This study investigates offensive and defensive measures other than war between the dominant and rising powers by utilizing another analytical framework termed “non-war offense and defense”. This paper discusses the United States’ non-war preventive approach towards China, exemplified by the CHIPS and Science Act implemented in 2022. The bill prohibits recipients from materially expanding their relative advanced semiconductor manufacturing capacity in China and other countries of concern.

Previous literatures related to power transition theory has primarily focused on war. This research provides more non-war perspective to the discussion of this theory, analyzes the dynamic competition between dominant and rising powers. Power transition theory tends to view the rising power as the instigator of war, while relatively little attention to the reaction and potential actions of the dominant power towards the rising power. The provision of excluding China and other concerning countries from the CHIPS and Science Act signifies the Washington’ caution towards Beijing. This can also be interpreted as a “non-war offense and defense” preventive measure of the former towards the latter. This can be seen as a response of the United States to the China’s increasing power. Therefore, a more comprehensive understanding of the ongoing power dynamics between China and the United States in the analysis of the power transition theory, can be achieved by paying more attention to the dominant power’s responses and potential actions in the face of a rising power.