被視為冷戰時期中最危險的古巴飛彈危機事件，持續吸引學者的研究興趣長達近半個世紀。特別是Kennedy白宮錄音帶此新證據之解密，對研究者而言呈現出重要的洞見暨困惑。儘管如此，鮮少研究透過外交信息傳遞之面向來探究此一歷史事件。信息傳遞此一針對國際危機解決之途徑認為，當面對國際衝突時，國家會傳達其對手具外交標的之「語言」與 「非語言」信息。就某種意義而論，決策者釋出之每一個信息與反信息，均意謂其自身策略性之意圖與關乎對手信息之反應。本文透過國際情境、菁英決策，以及外交信息傳遞等三個面向，針對古..

The Cuban Missile Crisis, one of the most dangerous events of the Cold War, has continued to attract academic attention for almost half a century, especially with the release of new evidence in the Kennedy tapes that presents researchers with insights as well as puzzles. Nevertheless, few, if any, studies have explored this historic event from a diplomatic signaling perspective. The signaling approach to international crisis resolution posits that in the face of international conflicts, a state disseminates verbal and/or nonverbal signals, ..

2008 年 9 月，美國、玻利維亞及委內瑞拉三國爆發令周邊國家擔憂的嚴重外交衝突事件。這個緊張情勢雖然在三方決定自我克制的情況下，除了相互驅逐大使，情勢並未惡化，但三方何以採取如此克制的作為，是筆者欲在本文探討的議題。本文利用傑維斯(Robert Jervis)1976年書中所提出決策者的認知、對他國意向的解讀、敵意的高低等認知心理途徑的核心概念，檢視 2008 年美、玻、委三國外交衝突事件中，三方究竟本於何種的利益考量或計算，才做出相互克制以緩解衝突的決..

In September 2008, there was a serious diplomatic confrontation involving the United States, Bolivia, and Venezuela that alarmed other countries in the Western Hemisphere. The decision to exercise self-restraint on all sides meant that action was limited to the mutual expulsion of ambassadors and the crisis did not escalate. In this paper, the author studies why the three countries exercised such self-restraint. Robert Jervis’ core concepts of policymakers’ perceptions, the understanding of other countries’ ..