二十一世紀以來的國際發展援助議程益加強調援助有效性，如何確立援助過程中最後階段—政策到發展結果—的有效性，則與2015年 2019年與2021年諾貝爾經濟學獎得主，使用個體資料、應用因果推論方法、進行反事實分析緊密相關。本文回顧援助有效性的背景，介紹反事實分析的邏輯、方法，並透過訪談與文獻分析，檢視臺灣目前政府開發援助中，已獲學術期刊審查刊登的反事實分析案例，包括國際合作發展基金會在南太平洋島國吉里巴斯與馬紹爾群島的園藝計畫以及海地之糧食安全計畫。本文發現上述案例..

Since the beginning of the twenty-first century, the international development agendas have put more emphases on aid effectiveness. How to ensure the effectiveness from policies to development outcomes, the last stage of the aid process, is closely related to counterfactual analyses using micro-level data and causal inference techniques, recognized by Nobel Memorial Prizes in economics in 2015, 2019, and 2021. This paper reviews the background of aid effectiveness, introduces the logic and techniques of counterfactual analyses commonly used..

現有國際關係對於霸權的已有論述，大多試圖描述國際體系出現逐霸國家的原因，卻少有探索逐霸國家的行為策略，對於逐霸國家如何克服各種挑戰，組建層級霸權秩序，尚未提出具體的分析模型。本文擬填補逐霸理論空白，概念化逐霸國家行為，提出逐霸分析架構，觀察逐霸國家在逐霸過程中如何克服競逐資格，地位汰除，以及新層級秩序組建的三大挑戰。戰國時代秦國先後淘汰魏國、楚國與齊國等逐霸競爭對手的歷程，是本文的研究樣本。公元前356年秦孝公變法改革，秦國強固內部統治權威，運用內部權力成長途徑（Internal Pow..

Existing International Relations Studies’ arguments on the hegemony are mostly satisfied with describing the birth of hegemon in the international system, but rarely explored its behavior and strategies for obtaining the supreme status of hegemony. There is no specific research framework for exploring how the aspiring hegemon overcomes challenges and establishes a hierarchical hegemonic order in the international society. This paper intends to fill the theoretical gap of hegemony studies, conceptualizes aspiring hegemon’s behavi..