新現實主義針對外部平衡提出了許多的模型，但卻未能說明國家為何，以及如何在不同類型的內部平衡間進行選擇，以回應外在的壓力。要解釋一國在軍事政策上的變化，必須以一種結合體系與單元雙層次變數的理論進行分析，而這種理論的基礎即是目前方興未艾的新古典現實主義。不過，新古典現實主義雖注意到了單元層次的重要性，卻仍忽略了國家行為邏輯的雙重性，亦即，國家除了權衡利害關係(後果性邏輯)以做出決策外，在此過程中，也會受到文化因素(適當性邏輯)的影響。本研究即是希望能夠透過理論綜..

There are many models of external balancing based on neo-realism. Nevertheless, not all can interpret why and how states choose among different types of internal balancing strategies to response the extrinsic stress. To understand the change of a state’s military policy, neoclassical realism integrates the system-level and unit-level variables. However, it still ignores the dual nature of the logic of state’s action, namely, besides interest, the influence of culture. Hence, a new “secure arming” model..

當歐洲聯盟完成 2004 年和 2007 年東擴以後，烏克蘭、白俄羅斯與摩爾多瓦三國成為歐盟與俄羅斯權力競爭的緩衝地帶，此三國外交政策偏好與未來可能走向對歐洲地區未來整合具重要意義。從對外政策制訂過程來看，一國外交政策選擇除受外部環境影響外，內部改革因素不容忽視，尤其歐盟於後冷戰時期推動之擴張政策對周邊國家產生極為深遠之影響。基於此，本文將採取社會穩定、民主化與經濟依賴三要素做為分析架構，以社會穩定與否、民主化程度高低、對外經濟依賴程度三變項理解此三國外交政..

Belarus, Moldova, and Ukraine occupy the focal point of political development in the European continent after the end of Cold War when European Union completed its eastern enlargement. The author argues that social stability, democratization and economic dependency are three major factors influencing Belarus, Moldova, and Ukraine’s foreign policy choices. First, the more stable social order within the country, the likelier government may foster a more unified foreign policy. Second, the more democratic political process..