本研究透過列項實驗（list experiment）指出傳統民意調查測量方法的侷限性，特別是在攸關民眾上戰場作戰的問題方面，解讀民調數字需審慎考量因「社會期許偏誤」（social desirability bias）造成的高估情形。具體而言，本文結合網路調查與列項實驗，探討社會期許偏誤對民眾上戰場意願的影響程度，並利用針對列項實驗所發展出的多變數迴歸分析（multivariate regression analysis）方法，檢視影響民眾上戰場意願的成因。結果顯示若中共武力犯台，民眾願為..

Through a list experiment, this study points out the limitation of public opinion survey. Especially when it comes to the issue related to people’s willingness to fight in a war, interpreting the poll requires careful consideration of overestimation caused by “social desirability bias.” By combing an online survey and list experiments, this paper examines how social desirability bias impacts Taiwanese’s determination to fight. The results show that if China invades Taiwan by force, about 64% are willing to fight for T..

本文主要研究問題是:中國大陸對於衝突預防的原則性立場與態度為何?在身為當事國與第三方行為者兩種不同身分時，其在實踐上有何不同?本文藉由南蘇丹危機與南海衝突兩個案例分析中國大陸在衝突預防實踐上，面對事關自身主權與國家利益以及與自身主權無關之衝突事件時，在衝突預防作為上有何差異?其宣示與實際作為有何落差?此外，為何中 國大陸在南海議題上，會由堅持雙邊對話，轉變為也同意透過多邊機制，作為處理南海主權爭議途徑的立場與作為?在這樣的雙邊與多邊機制下，呈現出怎樣的「中國..

The main research questions of the paper are as follow: first of all, what are China’s position, attitude, and actions in conflict prevention, second question is what is the difference between China’s action and statement on the issue of the South China Sea dispute and the South Sudan Crisis when China is one of the parties who faces sovereignty and national interest, and as a third- party in the practice of conflict prevention. Third question is why China is willing to change her position from insisting bilateral..