期刊內容 Issue content

戰略三角理論與台灣的三角政治
The Strategic Triangle Theory and the Taiwanese Triangle Strategy
初國華(Gwo-Hua Chu)張昌吉(Chun-Chig Chang)
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49卷1期(2010/03/01)

自 Dittmer 開啟戰略三角的國際政治理論後，三邊戰略探討便成為頗具詮釋力的理論模型。從冷戰時期的「美、蘇、中」戰略三角到近期的其它戰略三角，如「美、中、歐盟」、「美、中、印度」等等，族衍甚繁。

然而在東亞區域間的「美、中、台」戰略三角，隨著「中國崛起」的世界性影響與美國的東亞區域霸權穩定與利益，更使「美、中、台」戰略三角凸顯其重要性與區域霸權穩定或轉移的關鍵。以「美、蘇、中」戰略三角為立論基礎的 Dittmer 戰略三角論，是基於其國際政治理論的「四海皆準性質」假設，本文擬提出較精緻的「兩岸特色」戰略三角論以為補充。其次，Dittmer 的戰略三角論立基於冷戰結構的國際環境，本文也提出理論批評與質疑。至於理論的驗證，本文則在「兩岸特色戰略三角」的基礎上，試圖對當今台灣的戰略選擇提出建議。

 

Since Lowell Dittmer proposed the theory of strategic triangle, the theory has become a powerful explanatory model that developed various triangles from the US-Soviet Union-China strategic triangle in the Cold War to the other more recent triangles like the US-China-EU and the US-China- India. Among various triangles, the US-China-Taiwan triangle has evolved into a relatively more critical one in terms of its impact on the regional hegemonic stability or shift in East Asia due to the rise of China that is shaking the US hegemony in the region. In contrast to the assumption of universal application of the Dittmer’s model that was derived from the US-- Soviet Union-China strategic triangle, this paper supplements it with a more sophisticated strategic triangle model with “cross-strait characteristics.” In addition, this paper would be critical of the Dittmer’s model that was developed based on the context of the Cold War. Empirically, this paper would suggest strategic options for Taiwan based on the “strategic triangle with cross-strait characteristics.”

 

兩岸關係戰略三角理論兩岸特色戰略三角台灣的策略選擇 Both-sides relation theory of strategic triangle Both-sides Character of Strategic Triangle Taiwanese strategic choice

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