自 Dittmer 開啟戰略三角的國際政治理論後,三邊戰略探討便成為頗具詮釋力的理論模型。從冷戰時期的「美、蘇、中」戰略三角到近期的其它戰略三角,如「美、中、歐盟」、「美、中、印度」等等,族衍甚繁。
然而在東亞區域間的「美、中、台」戰略三角,隨著「中國崛起」的世界性影響與美國的東亞區域霸權穩定與利益,更使「美、中、台」戰略三角凸顯其重要性與區域霸權穩定或轉移的關鍵。以「美、蘇、中」戰略三角為立論基礎的 Dittmer 戰略三角論,是基於其國際政治理論的「四海皆準性質」假設,本文擬提出較精緻的「兩岸特色」戰略三角論以為補充。其次,Dittmer 的戰略三角論立基於冷戰結構的國際環境,本文也提出理論批評與質疑。至於理論的驗證,本文則在「兩岸特色戰略三角」的基礎上,試圖對當今台灣的戰略選擇提出建議。
Since Lowell Dittmer proposed the theory of strategic triangle, the theory has become a powerful explanatory model that developed various triangles from the US-Soviet Union-China strategic triangle in the Cold War to the other more recent triangles like the US-China-EU and the US-China- India. Among various triangles, the US-China-Taiwan triangle has evolved into a relatively more critical one in terms of its impact on the regional hegemonic stability or shift in East Asia due to the rise of China that is shaking the US hegemony in the region. In contrast to the assumption of universal application of the Dittmer’s model that was derived from the US-- Soviet Union-China strategic triangle, this paper supplements it with a more sophisticated strategic triangle model with “cross-strait characteristics.” In addition, this paper would be critical of the Dittmer’s model that was developed based on the context of the Cold War. Empirically, this paper would suggest strategic options for Taiwan based on the “strategic triangle with cross-strait characteristics.”
兩岸關係基本結構「政治疏離、經濟融合」,素有「經濟能否扭轉政治」之辯論。過去研究多直接討論經濟交流下的政治效果,卻較少對於經濟 「如何」影響政治多加描繪,使政治效果產出之前經濟發揮之「潛移默化過程」未能清楚交代。為能釐清經濟如何發揮政治影響力,本文以兩岸經貿交流現況中,大陸著力甚深的「台灣農漁產品採購」政策,聚焦兩岸首次漁業契作:「學甲—上海虱目魚契作」,討論經濟影響政治的機制及其作用。根據本文研究,中共對台農漁採購政策效果並不在於立即性的扭轉台..
Since the two sides of the Taiwan Strait restarted economic negotiations and signed a number of socio-economic agreements, there has been growing interests in the political implications of the economic linkage. While previous studies mostly illustrated various political outcomes of Cross-Strait economic exchanges, they tended to overlook how China can utilize its economic leverage to influence Taiwan. This paper argues that China’s preferential policies toward Taiwan farmers did not aim to alter Taiwanese identity in th..
台海兩岸自 1949 年分裂至今,雙方的政策雖歷經不同階段的調整,但仍無法突破僵局。中共始終不放棄以武力方式解決台灣問題的可能性,堅持對台灣使用武力乃其處理國內事務之主權合法行使,不受國際法的限制。本文從國際法禁止使用武力原則的目的與相關實踐來看,此原則不僅針對國家,也對包括事實實體在內的其它國際法人適用。現階段台灣在國際法下的國家地位雖有些爭議,但不影響其作為一個受國際法規範與保障的事實實體。不過,在兩岸關係中,由於中共堅持台灣問題為中國內政,且國際社會對..
The stand-off across the Taiwan Strait has, since 1949, continued to divide the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Republic of China (Taiwan). The PRC still insists that the Cross-Strait situation is an internal affair of China, and thus it upholds the position that using force against Taiwan is a legitimate exercise of sovereignty under international law. This article argues that, based on relevant practices, non-use of force as a principle under customary international law applies not only to States, but also to..
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