大喜馬拉雅流域因全球暖化導致冰川消融，面臨河川水量下降與乾旱危機。因這些河川多係跨界，水資源匱乏引起各國間的緊張，其中尤以中共與印度兩大強權關係最受矚目。中印跨界河川源頭都在中共控制的西藏高原，中共「南水北調」工程及在布拉馬普特拉河上游築壩，讓印度深感威脅，在缺乏水資源合作及資訊分享機制下，兩國現實主義的傾向，進一步惡化既存緊張關係，也使兩國水戰爭陰影揮之不去。
The glaciers melting of the Great Himalayan basin due to global warming has resulted in river water shortage and drought crises. As many rivers of the area are trans-boundary waters, water scarcity has aroused tension between countries. The relationships between the two powers – China and India – attract the most attention. As the sources of all shared rivers between the two countries lie on the Tibetan Plateau, which is under control of China, China’s South-to-North Water Diversion Project has thus posed significant threats to India. Owing to lack of water resources cooperation and information sharing mechanisms, realistic tendencies of the two countries have exacerbated the existing tension, and the potential risk of water war between the two countries seems inevitable.
本文主張新古典現實主義不宜再度檢視國內層次的眾多因素與變項，而應從實然的角度來思考國家如何評估威脅、國家如何選擇外交政策的類型。本文說明新古典現實主義並非為解決異例(anomaly)誕生，而是將非體系與理念因素納入體系理論的邏輯之中，也就是將國內層次因素解讀為決策者對壓力的反應類型，亦即決策者會評估並判斷應採取何種類型之外交政策。而根據決策者對國際壓力的知覺(perception)，以及對於國內政治的評估 (calculation)，本文整理出國家具有制衡、..
This article criticizes the inappropriateness of neoclassical realism in evaluating factors and variables at the domestic level. Instead, the manner of which states assess threats and choose types of foreign policy should be based on empirical methods. The authors explain that neoclassical realism is not a result of solving anomaly but that it combines non-structural and ideational factors into the logic of the system theory. Factors at the domestic level are supposed to be systematically categorized and simplified by types o..
本文主要的目的在於爬梳社會科學方法論中因果機制分析的發展和演進，並進一步評估政治學研究中如何運用因果機制來進行解釋以及討論相關的解釋效力的問題。本文將具體評析政治學國際關係領域中民主和平論之論點，以此來衡量政治學運用因果機制解釋的優勢和侷限。因果機制研究層面上，本文聚焦在機制的定義和類型、機制的觀察性、因果機制與因果關係、法則和中介變數的差異、機制的層次、機制的運作和測量、機制的路徑圖。因果機制運用層面上，本文側重於民主和平論的源起和演進、 民主和平論的重要論述、對於民主和平論的挑戰以及..
The main purpose of this paper is to parse out the development and evolution of causal mechanism and to further evaluate how political research adopts the method of causal mechanism to explain and discuss the explanatory effect in the field of qualitative methods. Our focus is to shed light on the causal mechanism of democratic peace theory in the field of international relations and to gauge its advantages and restraints. On the dimension of causal mechanism, this paper focuses on the definition of mechanism, observation of causal mechanis..
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