大喜馬拉雅流域因全球暖化導致冰川消融，面臨河川水量下降與乾旱危機。因這些河川多係跨界，水資源匱乏引起各國間的緊張，其中尤以中共與印度兩大強權關係最受矚目。中印跨界河川源頭都在中共控制的西藏高原，中共「南水北調」工程及在布拉馬普特拉河上游築壩，讓印度深感威脅，在缺乏水資源合作及資訊分享機制下，兩國現實主義的傾向，進一步惡化既存緊張關係，也使兩國水戰爭陰影揮之不去。
The glaciers melting of the Great Himalayan basin due to global warming has resulted in river water shortage and drought crises. As many rivers of the area are trans-boundary waters, water scarcity has aroused tension between countries. The relationships between the two powers – China and India – attract the most attention. As the sources of all shared rivers between the two countries lie on the Tibetan Plateau, which is under control of China, China’s South-to-North Water Diversion Project has thus posed significant threats to India. Owing to lack of water resources cooperation and information sharing mechanisms, realistic tendencies of the two countries have exacerbated the existing tension, and the potential risk of water war between the two countries seems inevitable.
不論從當前的理論或是實務發展來看，中國在2010年以來的對外主要 作為均以其一帶一路倡議以及亞洲基礎設施投資銀行作為分析要點，而美 國的對應則聚焦在歐巴馬總統開始，並在川普與拜登時期成熟的印太戰略 上。學界與政策界對兩國互動的研析，不外乎是基於這樣的戰略架構討 論。不過，中國如何在近年發展之中逐漸形成一套在亞洲地區的策略，用 以應對美國及其盟友的印太戰略，目前並沒有一套較完整的架構解析。本 文認為，雖然在政策偏向、對外原則以及價值觀等面向，中國並沒有採用 美國及其盟國所主張的「印太戰略」..
From either theory or practice, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) have been identified as two major foreign behaviors of China. To respond, the United States adopts the Indo Pacific Strategy which started in the Obama administration and developed in Trump and Biden administrations. Though scholars and policy practitioners apply the aforementioned strategies to analyze US-China relations, the understanding of China’s strategy in Asia is still underdeveloped. This paper argues that while ..
本文主張新古典現實主義不宜再度檢視國內層次的眾多因素與變項，而應從實然的角度來思考國家如何評估威脅、國家如何選擇外交政策的類型。本文說明新古典現實主義並非為解決異例(anomaly)誕生，而是將非體系與理念因素納入體系理論的邏輯之中，也就是將國內層次因素解讀為決策者對壓力的反應類型，亦即決策者會評估並判斷應採取何種類型之外交政策。而根據決策者對國際壓力的知覺(perception)，以及對於國內政治的評估 (calculation)，本文整理出國家具有制衡、..
This article criticizes the inappropriateness of neoclassical realism in evaluating factors and variables at the domestic level. Instead, the manner of which states assess threats and choose types of foreign policy should be based on empirical methods. The authors explain that neoclassical realism is not a result of solving anomaly but that it combines non-structural and ideational factors into the logic of the system theory. Factors at the domestic level are supposed to be systematically categorized and simplified by types o..
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