本文主要關注後冷戰時期，面對中國崛起，美中兩強與以「竹子外交」聞名的泰國如何相互應對與影響?本文主要研究問題為:一、促成美中泰三方互動結構轉變之重要政治事件為何?二、美中泰三方互動是否存在第三方影響?三、美中泰三角關係內部行為如何相互影響?透過時間序列分析，統計結果佐證911事件對美中泰三角關係產生了結構轉變之效應，而中國政經因素與泰國內政因素之衝擊有限。此外，統計結果也證實美中泰三角關係中，美中互動將促成泰國利用對美政策加以平衡回應，顯示泰國面對大國政治的敏感與謹慎。
Facing China’s rise in the post-Cold War era, how do great powers, like the United States, China, and Thailand, who is famous for its bamboo strategy, interact with each other? This paper aims to answer the question by analyzing (1) what events cause structural changes in the triangle; (2) how the third-party effect works in this triangle; (3) how the three actors influence each other. By applying time-series analyses, statistical results show that the 911 attack had led to a structural change for the triangle. The impact of China’s political-economic factors and Thai politics was not as significant as expected. On the other hand, statistical results also reveal the pattern that Thailand tended to balance the US- China interactions with its policy toward the United States, which also indicates Thailand’s sensitivity and prudence to power politics.
自一帶一路倡議提出以來，中國藉以外交政策與經濟治略的雙重政策，在周邊區域深植影響力。位於周邊的國家大量接收來自北京的經濟挹注與開發援助，大多正面回應中國提供的誘因。然而，政府之間的合作成果，卻在民間社會上形成看法不一的情況，對中國一帶一路下基礎建設的反饋程度也不盡相同。本文以越南平順省(Tỉnh Bình Thuận)永新電力中心(Trung tâm nhiệt điện Vĩnh Tân)為例，審視各電廠所造成的環境汙染、經濟生計、健康 問..
Since the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)was launched in 2013, China has adopted a variety of diplomatic and economic policies to enhance its political influence in the world. Among those policies were offering multi- billion-dollar infrastructure and investment deals across Southeast Asia, which were received positively and enthusiastically by the majority of the Southeast Asian governments. Yet, a row between supporters and opponents toward BRI of the civil society in these countries remains unsolved. To elaborate on this row..
近 400 年來的歐洲，是主權國家平等的「西發里亞體系」，以權力平衡維繫國際秩序;近 600 年以來的東亞，則是中國為天朝而四方小國臣服的「朝貢體系」，是上下層級的國際秩序。為何會有「朝貢體系」?它為何能運作?從現實主義式的觀點來看，「朝貢體系」只是一個包裝過的權力政治，骨子裡仍是物質上的利害與效益計算，中國霸權之下區域國家抵抗無望，不得不臣服。但是，從建構主義式的觀點來看，之所以會有「朝貢體系」的國際秩序，並不只是因為中國的強大，也是因為區域國家認同中國的..
For nearly four centuries, Europe had the so-called Westphalian System of sovereign states, in which balance of power was the basis of international order. In contrast, for nearly six centuries, East Asia had the so-called “tribute system,” a hierarchical order where China was the supreme leader. Why? From a realist perspective, the tribute system was just a wrapper over power politics based on material calculations of interest and benefit: East Asian countries had no choice but submission to China’s hegemon..
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