當美中兩大強權在東亞仍然維持既競爭又合作的態勢時，避險(hedging)遂成為亞太國家一個務實且富有彈性的外交政策選擇。本文認為，中國的「夥伴關係」外交在學理與實務上確實與傳統軍事聯盟存有差異。中國在後冷戰時期國際社會缺少意識形態對抗的背景下推動「夥伴關係」外交，透過改善對外關係而拉攏國際支持，進而使得周邊國家享有更多採取避險戰略的空間。南韓作為美國的亞太盟國，在美中之間的避險即為一項例證。本文認為，除非國際情勢與國際結構有明顯變化，短期之內中國應該不至於放棄「夥伴關係」外交。亞太國家也將會繼續採取避險戰略。
As the United States and China have remained the competition and cooperation in East Asia, hedging has become a pragmatic foreign policy object for the secondary states in the region. This article explores the differences between China’s “partnership” and traditional military alliances, attempting to explain the lack of a clear ideology in the post-Cold War era and its impacts on states’ hedging. Due to the strategy of “partnership” rather than the traditional military alliance, it has provided room for the surrounding countries’ hedging behavior. South Korea has represented one of the most appropriate hedging examples between Washington and Beijing. This study points out that unless there is a significant change in the international structure, China should not abandon its “partnership” strategy, which can explain why the risk aversion strategy is currently gaining more affirmation from the decision makers.
本研究目的在建立美國傳統戰略模糊與臺灣避險策略間之理論關聯性。主要假設當臺灣從美國獲得較多且明確之安全承諾時，將可能更依賴美國安全保護傘，進而降低自身制定外交政策之自主與靈活性。過去數十年，華盛頓持續且長期的安全承諾，即有可能限制臺灣的避險策略選擇。本研究的實證證據，主要探討川普與拜登政府任內，華府戰略模糊逐漸轉變為戰略清晰下，臺北在美中兩強之間的外交政策。此外，藉由將避險的理論「模型化」，並區別避險與樞紐的關係，是本文另一個研究貢獻。
The study aims to establish a theoretical connection between strategic ambiguity and hedging policy. The assumption is that as Taiwan receives more security assurance and clarity from the United States, it may rely more on the U.S. security umbrella, reducing its autonomy and flexibility in crafting its foreign policy. Over time, consistent and prolonged security commitments from the United States could limit Taiwan’s hedging options, as it increasingly aligns with the U.S. position. The empirical evidence in this article explores how..
中小型國家在當前國際體系下的數目眾多，這些國家有各自國家利益與偏好，因此理解這群國家的策略選擇可以更全面地了解國際關係發展。本文研究設計有以下幾個特色：第一，本文以歐洲的中小型國家為個案研究標的，擇立陶宛、匈牙利與土耳其三國進行分析，這三國分別位於當前東／西歐對立環境的最前沿，透過觀察這些國家可理解地緣斷層帶上中小型國家面對歐、俄強權競爭時的策略選擇。第二，由於中國近年不斷向歐洲拋射影響力，歐洲國家明顯感受到中國政策影響，歐洲的中小型國家傳統上面對歐／俄兩強環境已出現變化，由於中國不斷崛..
Small and medium-sized states constitute a substantial portion of the contemporary international system. These states possess distinct national interests and preferences; hence, examining their strategic choices provides a more nuanced understanding of the dynamics of international relations. This study is characterized by several key features. First, it focuses on European small and medium-sized states through the case studies of Lithuania, Hungary, and Turkey. These countries are situated on the geopolitical frontlines of the current East..
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