本文根據國際貨幣的內涵與貨幣國際化的前提條件,分析中國推動人民幣國際化的主要措施與目前人民幣國際化的程度,並評估人民幣國際化的未來展望。由於國際貨幣的使用具有很強的慣性,以美元與歐元為主的國際貨幣具有先占者優勢,加上中國的資本管制與金融發展程度偏低等因素的制約,人民幣要成為全球性的國際貨幣,應該是很遙遠的事。但是基於地緣關係、經貿關係與相對的經濟實力,短期內(例如 3 至 5 年)人民幣應該可以在周邊國家扮演貿易計價貨幣的角色。如果中國能夠在這段期期間逐步實..
Based on the connotation of international currency and the preconditions of currency internationalization, this paper investigates the measures taken by the Chinese government to promote the internationalization of the RMB and assesses the current state and prospect of the RMB as an international currency. As the hierarchy of international currencies has a strong inertia, together with strict capital controls and a low level of financial development in China, it will take quite a long time before the RMB emerges as a global c..
本文檢視在後冷戰時代石油美元機制對美國霸權之影響,並關注美國領導地位在 1991 年波灣、2003 年伊拉克與 2011 年利比亞等戰爭中的角色。在處理國際事務中,美國霸權逐漸採行單邊行動,因而產生合法性危機之質疑。因此自 1990 年以來,美國便宣稱願意承擔昂貴之經濟成本與犧牲其國家之利益,以便與他國建立聯盟共同對抗流氓國家之威脅。美國能以維繫穩定之國際經濟秩序,與贏得反恐作戰之合法性名義發動先制戰爭。為了理解這一看似非理性之行為,根基於 Pierre B..
This paper explores the impact of petrodollar mechanism on the hegemony of the United States in the post-Cold War era. It particularly focuses on the two wars against Iraq respectively in 1991 and in 2003 and the Libyan war in 2011, all under the leadership of the U.S. The U.S. hegemony has been experiencing a legitimacy crisis caused by its increasing tendency towards unilateral actions in international affairs. In order to form alliances among Western nations to confront the rogue states, the U.S. government has demonstrate..
混合式選制融合了多數決與比例代表兩種選制的精神,不過關於此種選制兩票架構對投票的影響,有兩種截然不同的主張:一是認為兩票各自獨立運作,其影響可以獨立估算;另一派則主張兩票抉擇會相互影響,亦即具有所謂連動效果(interaction effects,或稱感染效果 contamination effects)的存在,因此必須綜合考量兩票架構的互動關係。而在日本施行的混合選制,又因允許候選人在兩種選票間重複提名,更使得其兩票間的連動關係益形複雜。 ..
The Mixed Electoral System combines the spirits of plurality and proportional representation. The way two-ballot structure influencing the voting behavior however is not settled. Of the two distinctive schools, one believed that two ballots work separately and therefore, their influences should be estimated independently. The other group advocated the existence of contamination effects (or interaction effects), and believed that it is necessary to consider the interaction between two ballots. As for the Mixed- Member Majorita..
自 Dittmer 開啟戰略三角的國際政治理論後,三邊戰略探討便成為頗具詮釋力的理論模型。從冷戰時期的「美、蘇、中」戰略三角到近期的其它戰略三角,如「美、中、歐盟」、「美、中、印度」等等,族衍甚繁。 然而在東亞區域間的「美、中、台」戰略三角,隨著「中國崛起」的世界性影響與美國的東亞區域霸權穩定與利益,更使「美、中、台」戰略三角凸顯其重要性與區域霸權穩定或轉移的關鍵。以「美、蘇、中」戰略三角為立論基礎的 Dittmer 戰略三角論,是基於..
Since Lowell Dittmer proposed the theory of strategic triangle, the theory has become a powerful explanatory model that developed various triangles from the US-Soviet Union-China strategic triangle in the Cold War to the other more recent triangles like the US-China-EU and the US-China- India. Among various triangles, the US-China-Taiwan triangle has evolved into a relatively more critical one in terms of its impact on the regional hegemonic stability or shift in East Asia due to the rise of China that is shaking the US hegem..
在戰後日本民主憲政史上,2005 年舉辦的第 44 屆日本眾院議員選舉深受各界重視,特別是因為該屆選舉,是日本政治史上首度因重大政策遭國會否決,內閣首相逕予交付民意定奪的一項公民複決選舉。當時自民黨的執政內閣能否在改選中贏取民心,亦或由民主黨等在野黨派來更迭政權,不僅攸關小泉純一郎首相政治生命與改革路線的延續,更牽動日本未來政經局勢的發展走向,其重要性確實不容小覷。 有別於過往研究囿限於宏觀層次或質化的研究途徑,本文嘗試根據日本選舉研究..
The 44th Japanese House election in 2005 has played a significant role in its post-war democratic history and also drove a lot of attention in the academics. The importance of this election, regarded as the national referendum for the postal reform, relies on the fact that it is the first time the House is dismissed because of unsolved policy gridlock. The consequence of the election not only results in the destine of LDP coalition government and the political career of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, but also the developme..
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