本研究目的在於，從中國與北韓的國家利益角度，分析金正恩時期中朝之間合作與衝突的背景，進而探討雙方關係的走向。自習近平與金正恩於 2013 年分別出任中國與北韓的國家元首以來，由於中朝兩國皆採取對對方國家利益有所損失的政策，使雙方關係陷入緊張。就北韓的國家利益而言，穩定以金正恩為首的共產黨政權為第一要務。因此，金正恩上台之後，繼承金正日的「先軍政治」，持續研發軍事科技，進行試射導彈、第 3 次核試爆，採取「經濟、核武建設並進路線」，以凝聚國內團結，且處決危及金..

The purpose of this project is to analyze the historical background of co- operation and conflict between China and North Korea during the Kim Jung- un era from both Chinese and North Korean’s national-interest perspective, as well as the direction of bilateral relationships. Since Xi Jinping and Kim Jong-un took office as China and North Korea’s head of state in 2013 respectively, both countries have been adopting policies to lose their people’s national interest from each other, which in turn have caused g..

2016 年 1 月 6 日北韓進行第四次核試爆至 2017 年 9 月 3 日進行第六次核試爆，是北韓史上最密集發展核武及遠端投射能力的時期，這使美朝關係因此陷入年金正恩掌權以來最危險的時刻，雙方開戰傳言不斷。本文回顧這段期間的美朝戰略互動，發現雙方關係較貼近「螺旋模式」而非「嚇阻理論」假設。據此，若美朝對彼此「認知(perception)」無法調整，則雙方將因自我的不安全感無法解除，使對峙局面持續。而美朝關係能否走向緩解，關鍵不在美朝..

From January 6, 2016 to September 3, 2017, North Korea has executed three times of nuclear weapon testing, marking the highest frequency of testing in its history. As a result, this tension later built up the worst time of U.S.-North Korea relations after Kim Jong-un ruled the country. Because of this tension, there are a large number of reports that predict the U.S. will fight North Korea at any time. This research reviews the strategic interactions between U.S. and North Korea during that period, and then argues that the si..

為什麼北韓與古巴的統治者可以經歷二十世紀末期的民主化與所謂「第三波民主」(Third Wave Democracy)的浪潮，化解內外壓力，屹立不搖?北韓與古巴的統治體系與制度運作有何特質，讓這兩國的統治者可以牢牢地鞏固政權，而且延續家族的統治?北韓與古巴未來的政治轉型有哪些變數或面向值得注意?為探討這些問題，本文檢視若干政體分類的要點與問題，以及「顏色革命」、「茉莉花革命」的論述，採用文獻探討與訪談法，比較北韓與古巴的政治領袖與領導階層、黨國體系、意識形態、..

Why have North Korea and Cuba been able to resist pressure posed by democratization at the end of the twentieth century and the Third Wave Democracy? What are the systemic and institutional characteristics of the North Korean and Cuban ruling structures? How have the systems consolidated political power for the ruling families and the ruling class? The author explores the aforementioned questions via documentary analyses and interviews. The author highlights similarities and differences between the two non-democratic and hybr..