對於強權並存且有爆發戰爭可能性的國際格局，戰爭由誰引發在學界的論點迥異。權力轉移理論認為崛起國基於不滿現狀，會對主導強權發起戰爭；另有聲音則認為衰退的國家基於預防性動機，會對崛起的對手採取行動；然而，權力轉移理論與預防性動機的論述，主要關注於戰爭的發動，此觀點反映一種以「戰爭」進行解析的框架，即探討國與國之間是否會發生戰爭。本研究則以另一個「非戰爭的攻防」的分析框架，論述主導強權與崛起國之間在兵戎之外的攻防行動。本文以美國在2022年施行的晶片與科學法案為例，論述美國對中國採行的非戰爭預..

In the international arena where powerful nations coexist, and the possibility of war exists, there are differing opinions on who triggers wars. Power transition theory suggests that a rising power will initiate war against a dominant power out of dissatisfaction with the status quo. Other argue that the declining state is motivated by preventive motivation to take action against rising adversary. However, both the power transition theory and the preventive motivation argument primarily focus on the initiation of war. This perspective refle..

自我國與美國斷交後，過去40年來，美國政府對臺軍售始終為美國作為兩岸關係第三方影響的重要課題，亦為在兩岸間「衝突預防」的政策工具。美國對於臺灣的安全承諾，長期擺盪在安全利益與民主聲譽之間，亦根源於行政部門和國會之間的立場分野。有別於過去的分析途徑，本文從外交政策分析(FPA)的理論視角切入，以總統決策機制為分析單元，討論美國總統在對臺軍售決策機制中究竟扮演的關鍵角色，以總統任期、領導人安全觀及府會結構三項解釋變數，檢視歷屆美國總統對於公布軍售和..

Since the United States switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing, the U.S arms sales to Taiwan have been a critical issue affecting the Cross-Strait relations for the past 40 years. In order to preserve stability in the Taiwan Strait, maintaining sufficient self-defense capability for Taiwan has been the major goal of the United States. However, the U.S security commitment to Taiwan has long been fluctuating between security interests and democratic reputation. It also depends on the stance of the executive bran..