本文旨在探討台北縣選民在 2005 年縣長與鄉鎮市長兩個不同層級選舉中的一致與分裂投票行為。本研究的重點在強調:欲瞭解選民於不同層級選舉中的投票行為，不但要關注各個層級選舉影響因素的異同，更需考量到兩項公職同時選舉時可能產生的相互影響。因此在本文中，除概述台北縣選民在這兩種選舉中的一致與分裂投票情形之外，亦嘗試以隨機效用(random utility)理論，推演兼顧上述兩個特性的雙變數「聯立式機率單元模型」 (simultaneous equations p..

This article examines the first ever simultaneous local elections of county and township magistrates in Taiwan in December, 2005. We argue that in order to fully understand the voting choices in simultaneous inter-level elections scholars need to take account not only those factors affecting each level’s election but also the interactions between different levels. There are two competing theories concerning the flow of causal influences, i.e., the bottom-up mass mobilization hypothesis and the top-down coat-tail effect ..

近年來，深綠選民經常認為是陳水扁總統在個人危機，或是民進黨在選戰中的主要訴求對象，因而凸顯了深綠選民的重要性。本文主要的目的在於探討深綠選民應該如何測量及定義，以及他們是否真的是泛綠陣營選票的主要來源。作者根據台灣意識、台灣人政權以及政黨認同的概念，建構三個不同的指標，以測量及定義深綠選民。分析結果發現:以指標的表現而言，三個指標各有其優缺點，但在 TEDS2005M 的資料中，以台灣人政權指標的整體表現較佳。三個指標所定義的深綠選民，投票給泛綠候選人的比例..

Conventional wisdom holds that when President Chen Shui-bian faces personal crises, as well as in the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DDP) election campaigns, Chen and the party always appeal to the so-called “deep- green voters” for support, such that these voters factor prominently in determining election outcomes. The purpose of this paper is to define and measure deep-green voters, and also to examine whether the support of deep- green voters is vital for the pan-green parties. The author creates three i..

本文主要從日本政治經濟結構當中非正式制度的轉變來探討 1990 年之後日本經濟衰退的主要原因。在過去分析日本經濟衰退的原因大多是從國際層次與國內層次兩個面向來分析，在國際層次方面包括自由化的衝擊與日圓的急遽升值;在國內層次方面則包括政府主導模式的失調與規制緩和的調控，而這些面向主要焦點都集中在國際化與自由化的轉變對日本國內政經制度的衝擊，而忽略日本國內制度轉型的重要性。本文認為在過去這些文獻探討大多集中在日本正式制度的調整，而忽視非正式制度的存在與轉變。本文..

The goal of this paper is to explore the roots of Japanese economic recession in the 1990s from the transition of informal institutions in Japan. In the past, analysis of the Japanese economic recession in the 1990s was used to the aspect of international dimension and domestic dimension; focuses on the formal institutions such as political reform, fiscal reform, administrational reform, and financial reform, and neglected the changes of informal institutions. The argument of this paper bases on the fact that Japan has reform..

台灣與俄羅斯都是在第三波民主化浪潮時，從威權或極權政體走向民主政體的國家。然而，兩國的民主政治發展卻有截然不同的結果。本文的主要目的，乃是在探討 1995 年至 2005 年之間，台灣與俄羅斯在民主發展上的異同。首先，針對民主鞏固之概念作概括性的整理與解釋;其次，說明台灣與俄羅斯民主發展之過程;接著，以民主轉型與民主鞏固的模型，深入比較台灣與俄羅斯民主化進程之差異;最後，則進一步提出台灣邁向民主鞏固與俄羅斯發生民主崩潰的觀察。 &..

Both Taiwan and Russia became democracies during the period of Third Wave of Democratization. However, the results of democratization for each turned out to be completely different. The main purpose of this paper is to examine the similarities and dissimilarities of democratic developments during the period of 1995-2005. The concept of democratic consolidation and relevant ideas is clearly explained in the first section, also showing the process of Taiwan and Russia’s democratic developments. In addition, models of demo..

恐怖主義以國際化新面貌出現在東南亞地區已經形成對區域內國家安全的嚴重挑戰，同時也因為恐怖組織具有非國家行為者威脅區域安全的特性，其活動方式與範圍繁複，不僅僅以單純的暴力攻擊方式進行，另有以滲透、洗錢、非法入境、核生化原料販運，甚至進行網路攻擊等等，凸顯出恐怖主義與非傳統安全因素對區域安全的威脅大幅增高。而國際反恐的進行，衝擊區域內伊斯蘭世界的輿論動向，各國政府無不審慎因應。九一一恐怖攻擊之後恐怖主義及其相關安全威脅的嚴重性已經成為各國政府以及安全研究領域專家..

Over the past decade, terrorist activities in Southeast Asia have increasingly posed great threat upon regional security. By developing international networks, terrorist organizations can effectively launch operation across borders and deliver massive terror to societies concerned. Unlike traditional security threats to states, threats of terrorist organizations are characterized by its vast complexity and scope of activities. Not only do terrorists conduct violent attacks to communities targeted, but also carry out money lau..