本文根據國際貨幣的內涵與貨幣國際化的前提條件,分析中國推動人民幣國際化的主要措施與目前人民幣國際化的程度,並評估人民幣國際化的未來展望。由於國際貨幣的使用具有很強的慣性,以美元與歐元為主的國際貨幣具有先占者優勢,加上中國的資本管制與金融發展程度偏低等因素的制約,人民幣要成為全球性的國際貨幣,應該是很遙遠的事。但是基於地緣關係、經貿關係與相對的經濟實力,短期內(例如 3 至 5 年)人民幣應該可以在周邊國家扮演貿易計價貨幣的角色。如果中國能夠在這段期期間逐步實現利率自由化與匯率自由化,放鬆資本管制,並提高金融市場發展程度,人民幣可望逐漸在亞洲地區發揮國際貨幣的功能。
Based on the connotation of international currency and the preconditions of currency internationalization, this paper investigates the measures taken by the Chinese government to promote the internationalization of the RMB and assesses the current state and prospect of the RMB as an international currency. As the hierarchy of international currencies has a strong inertia, together with strict capital controls and a low level of financial development in China, it will take quite a long time before the RMB emerges as a global currency rival to the Euro and US dollar. Nevertheless, the RMB could become a major invoice currency of trade in Asia in perhaps three to five years, due to China’s dominant position in this region. In the meantime, if China would let the market decide interest and exchange rates, open up its capital and financial accounts, and develop its financial markets, the RMB could ascend as an international currency in Asia.
北京倡議的「亞洲基礎設施投資銀行」(簡稱:亞投行),在華府眼中,卻認為會挑戰到當今美國主導的全球經濟秩序。事實上,資本額度僅 1000 億美元的亞投行,無法撼動美國在全球金融政治中的主導地位。美國對亞投行戒慎恐懼,真是美元的地位受到威脅?亞投行的設立是否真能實踐人民幣國際化的目標?本文主張,中國應支持亞投行以美元發行(而非人民幣計價) 的「亞投行債券」,並同時設立「帶路基金」發行人民幣計價的「帶路基金債券」。如此,中國才得逐步降低對美國國債的過度依賴,掌握到..
Beijing launched the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank(AIIB)in order to offer financial resources for more investments to Asian countries in need. To some extent, the US$ 100 billion AIIB is not supposed to impose any serious threat to U.S. dominance in global finance. Why does the U.S. fear the China-led AIIB? Would the establishment of AIIB speed up decline of the dollar as an international currency? Is the AIIB likely to contribute to further internationalization of the renminbi(RMB)? This paper contends that China shou..
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