本文主要關注後冷戰時期,面對中國崛起,美中兩強與以「竹子外交」聞名的泰國如何相互應對與影響?本文主要研究問題為:一、促成美中泰三方互動結構轉變之重要政治事件為何?二、美中泰三方互動是否存在第三方影響?三、美中泰三角關係內部行為如何相互影響?透過時間序列分析,統計結果佐證911事件對美中泰三角關係產生了結構轉變之效應,而中國政經因素與泰國內政因素之衝擊有限。此外,統計結果也證實美中泰三角關係中,美中互動將促成泰國利用對美政策加以平衡回應,顯示泰國面對大國政治的敏感與謹慎。
Facing China’s rise in the post-Cold War era, how do great powers, like the United States, China, and Thailand, who is famous for its bamboo strategy, interact with each other? This paper aims to answer the question by analyzing (1) what events cause structural changes in the triangle; (2) how the third-party effect works in this triangle; (3) how the three actors influence each other. By applying time-series analyses, statistical results show that the 911 attack had led to a structural change for the triangle. The impact of China’s political-economic factors and Thai politics was not as significant as expected. On the other hand, statistical results also reveal the pattern that Thailand tended to balance the US- China interactions with its policy toward the United States, which also indicates Thailand’s sensitivity and prudence to power politics.
2006年9月19日泰國爆發字1991年以來首次的軍事政變,結束了長達近一年的反塔克辛運動,總理塔克辛(Thaksin Shinawatra)被迫下台並流亡海外,臨時政府預計將以一年的時間進行政治改革,修訂新憲法與重新舉行國會大選,塔克辛時代正式宣告結束。事實上,2001年時塔克辛率領泰愛泰黨(Thai Rak Thai Party)以極大的差距擊敗民主黨(Democrat Party),順利當選泰國總理,歷經四年的執政之後,再度於2005年獲得連任。儘管塔克辛具有龐大民意的支持,但由於..
The first coup d’etat since 1991 in Thailand on 19 September 2006 ended not only the year-long anti-Thaksin demonstrations, but also Thaksin’s political career. The provisional government, led by General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, organized by the Council for Democratic Reform (CDR), was determined to restore a democratic government, to revise the new constitution, and hold a general election within one year. In the 2001 general election, Thaksin Shinawatra led the Thai Rak Thai (TRT) Party and triumphantly defeated the Democratic Pa..
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