本文主要的目的在於爬梳社會科學方法論中因果機制分析的發展和演進,並進一步評估政治學研究中如何運用因果機制來進行解釋以及討論相關的解釋效力的問題。本文將具體評析政治學國際關係領域中民主和平論之論點,以此來衡量政治學運用因果機制解釋的優勢和侷限。因果機制研究層面上,本文聚焦在機制的定義和類型、機制的觀察性、因果機制與因果關係、法則和中介變數的差異、機制的層次、機制的運作和測量、機制的路徑圖。因果機制運用層面上,本文側重於民主和平論的源起和演進、 民主和平論的重要論述、對於民主和平論的挑戰以及現實主義因果機制的補充解釋。最後,本文針對民主和平論的相關論辯提出因果機制的補充解釋。
The main purpose of this paper is to parse out the development and evolution of causal mechanism and to further evaluate how political research adopts the method of causal mechanism to explain and discuss the explanatory effect in the field of qualitative methods. Our focus is to shed light on the causal mechanism of democratic peace theory in the field of international relations and to gauge its advantages and restraints. On the dimension of causal mechanism, this paper focuses on the definition of mechanism, observation of causal mechanism, the difference between causal mechanism, causality, laws and intervening variables, level of analysis, operationalization and measurement of causal mechanism, and roadmap of causal mechanism. This paper applies the analysis of causal mechanism to the origin and evolution of democratic peace theory, the challenges of realism over democratic peace theory, and the responses from democratic peace theory. Finally, we offer an alternative explanation to the debate between democratic peace theory and realism.
新現實主義針對外部平衡提出了許多的模型,但卻未能說明國家為何,以及如何在不同類型的內部平衡間進行選擇,以回應外在的壓力。要解釋一國在軍事政策上的變化,必須以一種結合體系與單元雙層次變數的理論進行分析,而這種理論的基礎即是目前方興未艾的新古典現實主義。不過,新古典現實主義雖注意到了單元層次的重要性,卻仍忽略了國家行為邏輯的雙重性,亦即,國家除了權衡利害關係(後果性邏輯)以做出決策外,在此過程中,也會受到文化因素(適當性邏輯)的影響。本研究即是希望能夠透過理論綜..
There are many models of external balancing based on neo-realism. Nevertheless, not all can interpret why and how states choose among different types of internal balancing strategies to response the extrinsic stress. To understand the change of a state’s military policy, neoclassical realism integrates the system-level and unit-level variables. However, it still ignores the dual nature of the logic of state’s action, namely, besides interest, the influence of culture. Hence, a new “secure arming” model..
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