歐洲歷經兩極體系瓦解與區域整合不斷推進的國際局勢,處在歐洲大陸的眾多國家各自發展出不同的安全策略、採取多種途徑保障本身國家安全,我們認為歐洲國家的安全策略選擇有其路徑可循,本文著重討論此種策略選擇的因素分析。在案例揀選上,本文特別著重歐洲中小型國家安全策略選擇,這主要是因為過去相當長的時間國際關係學多著重於大國安全研究,對中小型國家重視程度仍有待提升,因此本文擬從中小型國家著手,分析這一群國家安全策略選擇。
在安全策略選擇模式建立上,本文認為中小型國家親歐或親俄安全選擇是政策天然選項,這主要是因為權力競逐過程中,中小型國家為能鞏固安全環境而不得不作出的政策調整,不過此種選擇彼此有異同處,本文希望能找出這些中小型國家安全政策選擇關鍵所在,並建立一個中小型國家策略抉擇的模型分析。本文首先區分歐俄權力競逐中間地帶的 16 個國家地緣分布,以此作為親歐親俄政策選擇之地緣政治觀點。其次將從這些不同群組國家的親歐親俄政策路線進行分類,依其加入歐洲各式政經軍組織之國際協定,判斷其親歐與親俄的策略選擇。最後將討論這些中小型國家安全策略選項的要素分析,嘗試釐清這一群組國家選擇的內外因素。
The European continent has been free of great wars since the end of Cold War. This article assesses security studies in international relations by focusing on middle ground states’ strategic choices in relation to great powers. We argue that Small and Medium States(SMSs)widespread in Eastern Europe, Balkan Peninsula and South Caucasus have their strategic calculations in shaping their security choices. The article posits that the decision-making process of SMSs’ security policies rests upon differentiated and cross-pollinated factors. Balancing, bandwagoning, neutrality, accommodation and transformation are features of SMSs’ choices.
The author employs SMSs’ international participation as variables in explaining their security choices and uses a mix of elements of political/economic factors in analyzing those states reacting to neighboring powers. We find that geopolitics and regional integration are crucial in shaping Europe’s security environment, while domestic and responsive factors co-construct SMSs’ policy formation. In conclusion, we seek to understand the implications of our analysis of SMSs’ security choices.
經濟學界基於 1990 年代歐洲匯率機制危機的歷史教訓,與新近發展的內生整合理論,多認為即使無法擺脫馬斯垂克條約整合門檻的法規束縛,歐洲貨幣同盟至少應儘快邀請有意加入歐元區的歐盟東歐成員國,在此一過渡階段進行密切的經濟貨幣政策協調合作,以免再度發生匯率與金融危機。本文首先對經濟學界就歐洲貨幣同盟擴張議題,所發表的重要文獻進行評述。其次根據既有論點,以東歐經濟規模最大的捷克、匈牙利、波蘭作為研究對象,結合簡單的總體經濟模型與賽局分析概念,探討三國已為歐盟成員,..
Some economists believe that even if the Maastricht convergence criteria is indispensable, the European Monetary Union should at least invite Central and Eastern European countries to participate in economic policy coordination as soon as possible, on the basis of the theory of endogeneity and the experience of the ERM crisis in the 1990s. The purposes of this research are 1)to provide an economic literature review about the issue of EMU enlargement and 2)to determine whether a bilateral coalition of an accession country and ..
2004年10月,第五屆亞歐會議在越南河內舉行,本屆亞歐會議可以視為歐洲與亞洲兩大區域的結合。亞歐會議雖然確立了「政治對話、經濟合作和文化交流」三大領域的合作關係,但是到目前卻仍然停留在相互對話及磨合的階段,連最初步的雙方共組自由貿易區都無法達成共識; 另外,不論從經濟面向或是政治面向來檢視,亞太地區仍然是東亞國家主要貿易往來的主體,同時亞太地區已經存在著亞太經合會的對話管道,甚至東亞地區的東協加三也正在逐漸成形,成為東北亞與東南亞的主要交流管道,因此,在沒有共同經濟利益的基礎之下,亞歐..
The 5th ASEM took place on October 2004 in Hanoi, Vietnam. Although ASEM is an informal forum, it was one of the most important cross-continental regime. Though the forum establishes the structure of “political dialogue, economical cooperation, and culture interflow”, the process still lodges on dialogues of two sides, even in the free trade area that was co-established, consensus is rare. In addition, from both political and economical aspect, the Asian-pacific region still is the mainframe of East Asian trades; the A..
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