自 Dittmer 開啟戰略三角的國際政治理論後,三邊戰略探討便成為頗具詮釋力的理論模型。從冷戰時期的「美、蘇、中」戰略三角到近期的其它戰略三角,如「美、中、歐盟」、「美、中、印度」等等,族衍甚繁。
然而在東亞區域間的「美、中、台」戰略三角,隨著「中國崛起」的世界性影響與美國的東亞區域霸權穩定與利益,更使「美、中、台」戰略三角凸顯其重要性與區域霸權穩定或轉移的關鍵。以「美、蘇、中」戰略三角為立論基礎的 Dittmer 戰略三角論,是基於其國際政治理論的「四海皆準性質」假設,本文擬提出較精緻的「兩岸特色」戰略三角論以為補充。其次,Dittmer 的戰略三角論立基於冷戰結構的國際環境,本文也提出理論批評與質疑。至於理論的驗證,本文則在「兩岸特色戰略三角」的基礎上,試圖對當今台灣的戰略選擇提出建議。
Since Lowell Dittmer proposed the theory of strategic triangle, the theory has become a powerful explanatory model that developed various triangles from the US-Soviet Union-China strategic triangle in the Cold War to the other more recent triangles like the US-China-EU and the US-China- India. Among various triangles, the US-China-Taiwan triangle has evolved into a relatively more critical one in terms of its impact on the regional hegemonic stability or shift in East Asia due to the rise of China that is shaking the US hegemony in the region. In contrast to the assumption of universal application of the Dittmer’s model that was derived from the US-- Soviet Union-China strategic triangle, this paper supplements it with a more sophisticated strategic triangle model with “cross-strait characteristics.” In addition, this paper would be critical of the Dittmer’s model that was developed based on the context of the Cold War. Empirically, this paper would suggest strategic options for Taiwan based on the “strategic triangle with cross-strait characteristics.”
針對漸行漸遠的兩岸關係,對岸近年推出一系列的惠台、交流政策,試圖強化兩岸民間互動,促進雙方和平統一。此類政策核心環節之一是兩岸的青年交流,自 2004 年以降,邀訪活動即不斷擴大規模,參與頗為熱絡,但此類政策能否發揮部分人士憂慮的政治影響,目前似未見系統的實證研究。 有鑒於此,作者乃透過深度訪談,搭配以問卷分析,探討此類交流接觸經驗,能否轉變參與者的政治認知及政治認同。根據作者研究發現,參與此類活動後,台灣青年既有的刻板印象,產生相當顯著的變化,但若觸及深層..
To break the stalemate of today’s cross-Strait relations, China has formulated a series of policies recently to promote cross-Strait exchanges and in the end to create pro-unification interests in Taiwan society. One of the key elements of these policies is hosting student teams from Taiwan for a short visit to China. Since the year 2004, these student teams have attracted thousands of Taiwan college students each year and through these teams, the students had first-hand contacts with the Mainland Chinese society. But t..
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