美國如何操作外交政策訊號而使其政策意圖能夠被正確解讀呢?過去研究探討美國外交政策是否因「聽眾成本」大小而變得可信。但對於美國政府如何操作外交政策訊號卻未有系統性研究。本文介紹過去學界引用賽局理論所推演出的兩項假設。即在高賭注系列事件上,美國外交政策訊號呈現正反夾雜,混淆不一的現象。而在低賭注系列事件,美國政策訊號則呈現重複敘述,單調一致的現象。本文以美國在南海島礁爭議,以及其在 APEC 承諾的系列事件為例,試圖檢證上述兩項假設。本文發現就此兩系列案例,美國..
How does the U.S. manage its foreign policy signals to ensure its intentions are read correctly? Scholars have invoked the concept of ‘audience cost’ to explain credibility of leaders’ threats and policy signals. However, no systematic study has been undertaken on how the U.S. government manages its foreign policy signals. By employing two hypotheses developed by a scholar of signaling games, this paper attempts to examine how the U.S. manipulates policy signals to allow its intentions to be read correctly. ..
2004年10月,第五屆亞歐會議在越南河內舉行,本屆亞歐會議可以視為歐洲與亞洲兩大區域的結合。亞歐會議雖然確立了「政治對話、經濟合作和文化交流」三大領域的合作關係,但是到目前卻仍然停留在相互對話及磨合的階段,連最初步的雙方共組自由貿易區都無法達成共識; 另外,不論從經濟面向或是政治面向來檢視,亞太地區仍然是東亞國家主要貿易往來的主體,同時亞太地區已經存在著亞太經合會的對話管道,甚至東亞地區的東協加三也正在逐漸成形,成為東北亞與東南亞的主要交流管道,因此,在沒有共同經濟利益的基礎之下,亞歐..
The 5th ASEM took place on October 2004 in Hanoi, Vietnam. Although ASEM is an informal forum, it was one of the most important cross-continental regime. Though the forum establishes the structure of “political dialogue, economical cooperation, and culture interflow”, the process still lodges on dialogues of two sides, even in the free trade area that was co-established, consensus is rare. In addition, from both political and economical aspect, the Asian-pacific region still is the mainframe of East Asian trades; the A..
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