阿拉伯之春是於 2010 年年底,由突尼西亞開始發生一連串位於包括中東與北非地區的國內政治動盪事件。多數人認為,這與當地的威權政治,以及經濟發展遲緩有高度相關,因此,本文首先探討中東北非地區內戰可能的發生原因,包括經常被提及的政治與經濟因素,另外再輔以中東北非地區特殊的區域環境解釋,包括了此區特有的豐富天然資源,以及造成此次阿拉伯革命的連鎖反應。作者發現,經濟發展非常顯著地影響著內部衝突發生的機率,包括良好的發展以及開放的貿易政策,而民主與衝突則顯示「倒 U 型」 的分布,過渡政體是最容易發生內部衝突的政體,而從威權到過渡政體間的衝突機率是升高的,而從過渡政體往民主的衝突機率則減少。自然資源的產出與衝突有顯著的正相關,但是並非意味著此區生產最多的原油是引戰的原罪。最後,本文證實在此區衝突的傳染力是存在的,但僅限於「鄰國」,若超越了國界,這樣的感染力也隨之消失。由於本研究為從 1946~2012 年,研究對象包括 24 國的時間序列與橫斷面資料(time-series, cross-sectional, TSCS),以及依變數為二元類別變數(binary outcome variable),因此採用廣義估計方程式(General Estimating Equation, GEE)作為本文的主要研究 方法。
Since the Arab Spring occurred in the end of 2010, Middle East and North Africa(MENA)regions have drawn attentions from international society because of turbulent domestic events. Some nations in this area have leaders who stay in office for a very long time(e.g. Libya and Egypt), and some nations suffer from slow economic development(e.g. Algeria). Therefore, this study tries to review the previous studies on the civil war, focusing on political and economic determinants, to examine if political institution and economic development affect the onset of internal conflict in the region. The results show an inverted U-shape relationship between democracy and the onset of conflicts. Autocracy is proven to be the most chaotic regime. However, the likelihood of conflict is decreasing as economy develops. In addition, the author investigates two regional factors – natural resources and conflict contagion in this study – and finds significant relationships. In this study, data are time-series and cross-sectional(TSCS), including MENA countries from 1946 to 2011, while The General Estimating Equation(GEE)are applied as the econometric model.
「歐洲化」概念在過去十年間受到歐盟研究學者的重視;然而當越來越多人賦予「歐洲化」越來越多的定義,「歐洲化」概念的實用性開始受到質疑。本文著重歐洲化概念對進一步增進我們對歐盟的了解所可能提供的「用處」,試圖利用歐洲化概念來探討歐洲整合對於不同層次的行為者所造成的衝擊。期以歐盟的民主赤字現象為例,說明歐洲化研究的實用性。文章首先從既存研究中確立歐洲化在歐洲政治結構的「上層」已經發生是既存事實,然而歐洲化在歐洲政治結構的「底層」則尚未發生。歐洲化的發生所仰賴的「機..
In the past ten years, Europeanists paid an increasing amount of attention to the concept of “Europeanization.” When the definition of “Europeanization” expands as more and more scholars build their research around the concept, the usefulness of the concept was cast in doubt. This article uses the study of elite-citizen gap in the EU as an example to shed light on the usefulness of the Europeanization concept in furthering our understanding of European integration. It examines the impact of Europeaniza..
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