印巴關係一直是南亞區域安全的焦點，而印巴自兩國獨立之後就擺盪在戰爭與和談之間，長久以來對喀什米爾(Kashmir)主權的認知無法達成共 識。本文的論點是，「安全困境」(security dilemma)不一定是印巴關係的宿命。兩國之間的戰或和，多半取決於主要決策者在面對國內各利益團體及國際的壓力時，基於維持權力的目的，做出決策所造成的結果。本文將以 1998-2004 年期間印巴和平進程為例，探討印巴兩國在國際、國內環境及領導利益等因素影響之下所做的決策，如何影響印巴關係。內部權力的考量主導著印巴和平的前景。當兩國領袖的權力都較為穩固，沒有壓力需要立即爭取更多的支持，加上有國際的支持時，較容易達成和平。而巴基斯坦不穩的政局是和平的一大阻礙。在 1998 年的印巴核武競賽後，美國和區域鄰國對於印巴關係的影響力，越來越重要。美國的強力協調，有助於印巴緩解衝突，雖然沒有重大的進展，但至少未再發生大規模戰爭。但是美國因反恐而提供經濟與軍事援助給予巴基斯坦，反而造成區域關係的緊張。

This article will examine the relations between India and Pakistan during 1998-2004 and study how decisions made by leaders of India and Pakistan under domestic and international pressure had influenced India- Pakistan relations. The article argues that the India-Pakistan relations will not necessarily be trapped in the "security dilemma." The relations between the two countries for a large part depend on the decisions of major policymakers based on the goal of maintaining power as well as foreign players such as the United States. When the power bases of the major decision-makers were stable and international pressure was present, peace was more easily reached. Thus, political instability in Pakistan was an obstacle to peace between the two countries. While after the nuclear tests by the two countries in 1998, the influence of the United States and other major states, such as Russia and China, became more important. However, the United States' economic and military aid to Pakistan in the wake of the 9-11 attack inadvertently caused tension between the two.