選舉制度影響政黨體系,是廣為人知的因果推論。依此邏輯,若以政黨體系為因,以選舉制度的變化為果,即產生內生性的選制變遷理論。然而,某些研究者仍認為選制變革起於和政黨體系無關的外生因素。本文主張,選制變遷是否受到政黨體系的影響,取決於選制的種類。第一,有利大黨的多數決選制如果始終未出現一黨過半,則國會屬於多黨制,有可能因為小黨組成多數聯盟而改採比例性選制。尤其當現狀為並立式單一選區兩票制時,可能因為小黨的議席多來自政黨名單,而比代表區域主義的多數決選制更容易導致..
It is well known that electoral system shapes party system. By this logic, an endogenous explanation for changes in electoral systems should treat party system as the cause and changes as the consequence, in sharp contrast with theories attributing changes to exogenous factors that are irrelevant to party system. This paper argues that whether changes in electoral system are caused by party system depend on the type of the electoral system. First, if a majority party never emerges from a majoritarian electoral system, minor p..
本文旨在探討台北縣選民在 2005 年縣長與鄉鎮市長兩個不同層級選舉中的一致與分裂投票行為。本研究的重點在強調:欲瞭解選民於不同層級選舉中的投票行為,不但要關注各個層級選舉影響因素的異同,更需考量到兩項公職同時選舉時可能產生的相互影響。因此在本文中,除概述台北縣選民在這兩種選舉中的一致與分裂投票情形之外,亦嘗試以隨機效用(random utility)理論,推演兼顧上述兩個特性的雙變數「聯立式機率單元模型」 (simultaneous equations p..
This article examines the first ever simultaneous local elections of county and township magistrates in Taiwan in December, 2005. We argue that in order to fully understand the voting choices in simultaneous inter-level elections scholars need to take account not only those factors affecting each level’s election but also the interactions between different levels. There are two competing theories concerning the flow of causal influences, i.e., the bottom-up mass mobilization hypothesis and the top-down coat-tail effect ..
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