阿拉伯之春是於 2010 年年底,由突尼西亞開始發生一連串位於包括中東與北非地區的國內政治動盪事件。多數人認為,這與當地的威權政治,以及經濟發展遲緩有高度相關,因此,本文首先探討中東北非地區內戰可能的發生原因,包括經常被提及的政治與經濟因素,另外再輔以中東北非地區特殊的區域環境解釋,包括了此區特有的豐富天然資源,以及造成此次阿拉伯革命的連鎖反應。作者發現,經濟發展非常顯著地影響著內部衝突發生的機率,包括良好的發展以及開放的貿易政策,而民主與衝突則顯示「倒 U 型」 的分布,過渡政體是最容易發生內部衝突的政體,而從威權到過渡政體間的衝突機率是升高的,而從過渡政體往民主的衝突機率則減少。自然資源的產出與衝突有顯著的正相關,但是並非意味著此區生產最多的原油是引戰的原罪。最後,本文證實在此區衝突的傳染力是存在的,但僅限於「鄰國」,若超越了國界,這樣的感染力也隨之消失。由於本研究為從 1946~2012 年,研究對象包括 24 國的時間序列與橫斷面資料(time-series, cross-sectional, TSCS),以及依變數為二元類別變數(binary outcome variable),因此採用廣義估計方程式(General Estimating Equation, GEE)作為本文的主要研究 方法。
Since the Arab Spring occurred in the end of 2010, Middle East and North Africa(MENA)regions have drawn attentions from international society because of turbulent domestic events. Some nations in this area have leaders who stay in office for a very long time(e.g. Libya and Egypt), and some nations suffer from slow economic development(e.g. Algeria). Therefore, this study tries to review the previous studies on the civil war, focusing on political and economic determinants, to examine if political institution and economic development affect the onset of internal conflict in the region. The results show an inverted U-shape relationship between democracy and the onset of conflicts. Autocracy is proven to be the most chaotic regime. However, the likelihood of conflict is decreasing as economy develops. In addition, the author investigates two regional factors – natural resources and conflict contagion in this study – and finds significant relationships. In this study, data are time-series and cross-sectional(TSCS), including MENA countries from 1946 to 2011, while The General Estimating Equation(GEE)are applied as the econometric model.
現代日本保守主義歷來深受學術界的關注,尤其1990年代以後,日本政治社會往往被視為開始右傾化,因而出現許多從批判性角度分析日本保守主義的著作。然而,過去較少有從政治思想的角度切入之研究,故本文試圖彌補此空缺。保守主義是法國大革命以來構成現代政治思想的重要潮流,故為了理解現代日本的保守主義,政治思想的視角是不可或缺的。鑒於此,本文提出自由保守與國粹保守的分析框架,並從此角度對現代日本保守主義進行分析。自由保守是依據西方保守主義的思維,重視從「保守的」角度進行思..
The literature and academia have paid widespread attention to modern Japanese conservatism. Japan’s political society tends to be considered as leaning towards the right especially after the 1990s, resulting in many studies focusing on modern Japanese conservatism and criticizing its phenomenon. Past studies, however, did not often analyze the issue from the viewpoint of political thought, and therefore, this essay aims to fill such a gap. Conservatism has taken on an important role around the world, constitu..
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