本文認為,「既有強權美國 vs. 崛起強權日本」(1931~1941)與「既有強權美國 vs. 崛起強權中國」(1993~2018)的比較,能為現今的美中關係提供許多建設性的思考。本文從既有強權的角度觀察其如何回應崛起強權;以Randall Schweller的歸納為基礎而建立一個相對完整的政策選擇全貌。作者發現:面對1931~1941年崛起的日本,美國先採「中立、綏靖」,後改採「制衡」,最終採「戰爭」。面對1993~2018年崛起的中國,美國以「交往」為基調而佐以「戰略夥伴關係」,然因中國崛起與美國重返亞洲,其逐漸轉成「既交往又制衡」,是典型的「混合策略」。如此,成就兩個不同的大國互動結果。
This paper argues that the comparative study of the two cases - the US dominant power vs. the Japan rising power (1931-1941) and the US dominant power vs. the China rising power (1993-2018) can provide ample constructive thinking on the contemporary US-China relations. This paper focuses on how a dominant power reacts to a rising power. An analytical framework of dominant powers’ policy options toward rising powers, based on Randall Schweller’s theories, is developed and applied to this study. This paper has found that fac- ing a rising Japan from 1931 to 1941, the US first opted for neutrality and ap- peasement, but later changed to balancing, which eventually led to war. In con- trast, facing a rising China from 1993 to 2018, the US opted for engagement in principle and supplemented it with strategic partnership. However, in the case of rising China, due to the return of the US to Asia, the US gradually shifted its policy to engagement while balancing - this type of shift is a typical mixed strategy. As such, two different kinds of interactions between great powers have resulted in different consequences.
蒙古位於亞洲內陸,夾處於中、俄兩大強國之間的戰略位置,使其曾長期被兩大強鄰視為領土的邊疆(frontier)。隨著 1991 年蘇聯瓦解,使近代蒙古第一次擁有完整主權。此後,蒙古的對外政策定調為「不結盟、等距離、全方位」,在「第三鄰國」戰略操作及地理條件基礎下,以平衡為原則,執行外交策略。誠然,蒙古如何在兩大強鄰之間求取平衡的生存之道,建構出獨立與靈活的外交及經貿空間,是蒙古確保國家安全的一大課題,也是本文的研究目的。  ..
Mongolia, with its strategic location between China and Russia in the inner Asia, is seen by its powerful neighbors for hundreds of years as a frontier. In 1991, modern Mongolia obtained complete sovereignty for the first time after the disruption of USSR, Hereafter, its foreign policy was principled upon “independence, non-alignment, multi-pillars”. Under the “third neighbor” strategy, Mongolia uses the opportunities endowed from its geography to balance neighboring threats, ensure its national securi..
過去多年間,中國在網路科技領域取得了突出的建設成果,成為當代國際網路事務要角。北京當局近期更提出「網路強國」戰略,試圖全面強化國家網路實力。中國在網路領域的進取,不僅對美國的固有優勢構成挑戰,也助長了美國政府對其戰略意圖的疑慮,從而增添雙邊關係的不穩定性。為瞭解中國網路建設藍圖與對美政策立場,本文審視了「網路強國」戰略的主要內容,及美國因素在其間的影響;同時透過國際關係研究中的「避險戰略」 探討中國對美網路互動態樣,說明中國政府如何在網路事務中,同步推動對美..
China has made huge advances in the field of cyber technology in the past few years and it is now an important player in international cyber affairs. Beijing recently introduced its ‘Cyber Power Strategy’ in a bid to comprehensively strengthen the nation’s cyber capabilities. China’s cyber ambitions not only constitute a real challenge to the U.S. but have also prompted concerns in Washington about China’s strategic purpose and have more uncertainty to their already unstable bilateral relations. ..
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