當歐洲聯盟完成 2004 年和 2007 年東擴以後,烏克蘭、白俄羅斯與摩爾多瓦三國成為歐盟與俄羅斯權力競爭的緩衝地帶,此三國外交政策偏好與未來可能走向對歐洲地區未來整合具重要意義。從對外政策制訂過程來看,一國外交政策選擇除受外部環境影響外,內部改革因素不容忽視,尤其歐盟於後冷戰時期推動之擴張政策對周邊國家產生極為深遠之影響。基於此,本文將採取社會穩定、民主化與經濟依賴三要素做為分析架構,以社會穩定與否、民主化程度高低、對外經濟依賴程度三變項理解此三國外交政策走向。本文認為,第一,從社會穩定面向來看,當境內社會愈趨穩定,政府愈能推動內部改革以支持對外政策偏好,反之則亦受民族認同分裂影響而延宕外交政策目標實現;第二,民主化表現是東歐國家內部民意表現與外部強權支持的重要影響因素,民主化程度高低可作為政治菁英動員民意支持外交政策表 現,同時也可成為外部強權是否支持東歐國家政權統治的重要因素存在;第三,三國對外經濟依賴程度高低影響強權干預東歐國家手段之有效性,研究顯示外部強權以誘因與制裁手段作為干預東歐國家外交政策表現,而東歐國家亦採取平衡策略遊走歐俄之間,以此降低因外部強權施加強制性經濟手段而造成國內經濟損害。本文還同時指出加入歐盟之可能性亦為貫穿烏白摩三國內部改革之重要因素,從歐盟會籍身分之影響力來看,歐盟身分對有意尋求融入歐洲大家庭的東歐國家有極大之影響力,對其外交政策走向當然也具有關鍵性地位。
Belarus, Moldova, and Ukraine occupy the focal point of political development in the European continent after the end of Cold War when European Union completed its eastern enlargement. The author argues that social stability, democratization and economic dependency are three major factors influencing Belarus, Moldova, and Ukraine’s foreign policy choices. First, the more stable social order within the country, the likelier government may foster a more unified foreign policy. Second, the more democratic political process and open mass media environment within the country, the stronger people will support government’s policies. Third, economic dependency will confine Belarus, Moldova, and Ukraine’s foreign policy choices if those countries intend to modernize foreign policy tradition. In addition, membership of EU also plays an important role in shaping Belarus, Moldova, and Ukraine’s policy orientation. EU has its clout on the development of democratization and economic leverage while Russia has its say in the sphere of stability and economy. This article tries to establish an analytical framework of three countries’ foreign policy choices in a comprehensive approach.
觀察歐盟統合,歐盟 2004 年東擴是一項重要事件,因為透過東擴,歐盟將原屬於共產集團的中東歐國家納入歐盟會員國,並將歐盟價值規範與制度運作融入了中東歐新會員國的政治、經濟與社會生活之中,這一項成就讓歐洲大陸的和平與穩定局面大步向前;歐盟東擴後,歐盟對外關係研究主軸擴散到歐盟與鄰近國家交往,以歐盟睦鄰政策作為主要政策工具。歐盟的基本假定是,如果歐盟東擴取得豐碩成果,歐盟應該繼續複製東擴經驗、以誘因方式繼續向東擴散歐盟的理念與制度。但實際觀察睦鄰政策推動過程,..
The studies of EU’s Incentive Policy in its eastern and southern area have gained prominence in the literature. These findings suggest that the top- down/ bottom-up norms diffusion and adaptive learning process are helpful for the spread of democratization in new member and acceding states. More recently, after the completion of EU’s eastern enlargement, increasing studies are expanded to Eastern European countries; Ukraine and other eastern partners become the focal points of methodological objectives. The advent..
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