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前蘇聯地區內部改革與對外政策偏好關係:以烏克蘭、白俄羅斯與摩爾多瓦為例
The Correlation between Internal Reform and External Policy in the Post-Communist Region: Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine
楊三億(San-Yi Yang)
即將出版 下載檔案
48卷3期(2009/09/01)

當歐洲聯盟完成 2004 年和 2007 年東擴以後,烏克蘭、白俄羅斯與摩爾多瓦三國成為歐盟與俄羅斯權力競爭的緩衝地帶,此三國外交政策偏好與未來可能走向對歐洲地區未來整合具重要意義。從對外政策制訂過程來看,一國外交政策選擇除受外部環境影響外,內部改革因素不容忽視,尤其歐盟於後冷戰時期推動之擴張政策對周邊國家產生極為深遠之影響。基於此,本文將採取社會穩定、民主化與經濟依賴三要素做為分析架構,以社會穩定與否、民主化程度高低、對外經濟依賴程度三變項理解此三國外交政策走向。本文認為,第一,從社會穩定面向來看,當境內社會愈趨穩定,政府愈能推動內部改革以支持對外政策偏好,反之則亦受民族認同分裂影響而延宕外交政策目標實現;第二,民主化表現是東歐國家內部民意表現與外部強權支持的重要影響因素,民主化程度高低可作為政治菁英動員民意支持外交政策表 現,同時也可成為外部強權是否支持東歐國家政權統治的重要因素存在;第三,三國對外經濟依賴程度高低影響強權干預東歐國家手段之有效性,研究顯示外部強權以誘因與制裁手段作為干預東歐國家外交政策表現,而東歐國家亦採取平衡策略遊走歐俄之間,以此降低因外部強權施加強制性經濟手段而造成國內經濟損害。本文還同時指出加入歐盟之可能性亦為貫穿烏白摩三國內部改革之重要因素,從歐盟會籍身分之影響力來看,歐盟身分對有意尋求融入歐洲大家庭的東歐國家有極大之影響力,對其外交政策走向當然也具有關鍵性地位。

 

Belarus, Moldova, and Ukraine occupy the focal point of political development in the European continent after the end of Cold War when European Union completed its eastern enlargement. The author argues that social stability, democratization and economic dependency are three major factors influencing Belarus, Moldova, and Ukraine’s foreign policy choices. First, the more stable social order within the country, the likelier government may foster a more unified foreign policy. Second, the more democratic political process and open mass media environment within the country, the stronger people will support government’s policies. Third, economic dependency will confine Belarus, Moldova, and Ukraine’s foreign policy choices if those countries intend to modernize foreign policy tradition. In addition, membership of EU also plays an important role in shaping Belarus, Moldova, and Ukraine’s policy orientation. EU has its clout on the development of democratization and economic leverage while Russia has its say in the sphere of stability and economy. This article tries to establish an analytical framework of three countries’ foreign policy choices in a comprehensive approach.

 

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