1970 年代研究三角關係的專家塔圖(Michel Tatu)指出，美、中、蘇 「三者之一欲激起另兩方同謀之必然方式，為展現過度侵略性」。本文以塔圖之分析，探討 1979 年以來美臺軍事、政治與經貿關係之演變。由過去美、中、臺三角關係之互動，可以看出以下的特性:(1)中國對臺有過度侵略性的舉止，如 1996 年臺海危機，美國主動強化美臺軍事關係，增加美臺合作的空間;(2)在中國壓力下，國際組織有過度的舉止，如 2007 年聯合國秘書長潘基文謬誤解讀臺灣地位，美國願為臺仗義執言;(3)臺北有過度 「意外」之舉，如 2003 年倡議公投，增加美中合作防獨的動力;(4)美國若過度親中傷害臺灣利益，會促使美國國會採因應對策，彌補美臺關係，「臺灣關係法」即為一例;(5)如果處置得宜，美臺關係與兩岸關係可以同時並進;(6)臺灣經濟若進一步邊緣化並過度依賴大陸市場，不利美國的戰略布局;(7)中國崛起，美國重返亞洲，美國有賴中國合作之議題日增，美臺關係有機會提升亦面臨嚴峻挑戰;臺灣若能深化自由、民主、人權等核心理念，應能爭取美國朝野更多的支持。

Michel Tatu, an expert on US-China-USSR relations, observed in 1970 that “the surest way for any of the three to provoke the other two into collusion is to display undue aggressiveness.” This study analyses US- Taiwan relations in light of Tatu’s assumption. The interactions of US- Taiwan-China relations since 1979 are marked by the following features: (1)When China acts with undue aggressiveness against Taiwan – as for example in the 1996 missile crisis which prompted the US to dispatch two aircraft carriers to the Taiwan Strait – the result has been strengthened military ties with Taiwan;(2)The US has objected to all administrative barriers that unilaterally determine the political status of Taiwan by UN system agencies, as when UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon misinterpreted the status of Taiwan in 2007;(3) When Taiwan “surprises” its interlocutors, as with the 2003 referendum initiative, Washington and Beijing found common ground to contain Taipei; ( 4 ) When the US administration unduly injures Taiwan’s interests, US Congress takes concrete actions to strengthen US-Taiwan ties – for instance, by passing the Taiwan Relations Act;(5)With proper policies, Taipei can maintain good relations with Washington and Beijing at the same time;(6)If Taiwan’s economy is further marginalized and grows more reliant on the Chinese market, this will have strategic implications for US-Taiwan relations;(7)With the rise of China, Taiwan will face further challenges in its relations with the United States.