經濟學界基於 1990 年代歐洲匯率機制危機的歷史教訓,與新近發展的內生整合理論,多認為即使無法擺脫馬斯垂克條約整合門檻的法規束縛,歐洲貨幣同盟至少應儘快邀請有意加入歐元區的歐盟東歐成員國,在此一過渡階段進行密切的經濟貨幣政策協調合作,以免再度發生匯率與金融危機。本文首先對經濟學界就歐洲貨幣同盟擴張議題,所發表的重要文獻進行評述。其次根據既有論點,以東歐經濟規模最大的捷克、匈牙利、波蘭作為研究對象,結合簡單的總體經濟模型與賽局分析概念,探討三國已為歐盟成員,且未來必以加入貨幣同盟為目標下,歐盟官方如改採內生整合理念,立即與之進行經濟貨幣政策協調合作,並協力穩定雙方的經濟金融發展,是否能夠互蒙利益,進而減低該國重蹈 1990 年代歐洲匯率機制採固定匯率與資本流動自由化,卻因欠缺國際經濟政策協調合作,以致引發匯率與金融危機的覆轍。模擬結果顯示,囿於目前進度,於 2010 年方有可能加入貨幣同盟的捷克,應有資格立即與歐洲中央銀行進行經濟政策協作,並有效降低過渡時期發生匯率與金融危機的風險。
Some economists believe that even if the Maastricht convergence criteria is indispensable, the European Monetary Union should at least invite Central and Eastern European countries to participate in economic policy coordination as soon as possible, on the basis of the theory of endogeneity and the experience of the ERM crisis in the 1990s. The purposes of this research are 1)to provide an economic literature review about the issue of EMU enlargement and 2)to determine whether a bilateral coalition of an accession country and the European Central Bank would eliminate the risk of an ERM II crisis occurring during the transitional period. The simulation results indicate that, at this moment, the Czech Republic is qualified under specific simulated shocks. By means of cooperation with the European Central Bank, its interest rate differential with respect to the euro area can be maintained at a lower level and therefore decreases the risk of suffering from substantial capital flows during the transition to the EMU.
2004 年及 2007 年歐盟兩次東擴後已有 27 個會員國,但目前仍有許多國家期望未來可以加入歐盟。對歐盟來說,繼續擴大歐洲穩定與民主區有助於歐洲大陸局勢之穩定,然其負面效應則是過多會員國可能有礙於更深層次的整合與有限資源應如何有效分配等問題。因此,歐盟對其鄰近國家採取一系列相關政策來整合目前歐盟與這些地區之互動,其主要政策工具即是歐盟睦鄰政策之推行,本文試圖釐清歐盟睦鄰政策初步實踐之效果。作者認為,睦鄰政策做為歐盟外交政策工具之一,其主要核心目標在於提..
There are 27 member states within the European Union after enlargements of 2004 and 2007; many others are still trying to join the EU recently. The inclusion of more states is conducive to the expansion of stability zone in the European continent but it will be at the cost of closer EU integration and resource distribution. The European Neighbourhood Policy is designed for enhanced cooperation after the fifth enlargement between EU and its partner countries and this article tries to explore the innate nature of policy goals a..
投資在歐盟與中國經貿關係,扮演一項重要角色。2009年12月1日《里斯本條約》生效後,歐盟共同貿易政策已涵蓋投資,使歐盟取得投資政策與投資談判之專屬職權。歐盟於2011年成為中國第一大貿易夥伴,與中國建立全面戰略夥伴關係。歐盟因此積極推動與中國的雙邊投資協定談判,以單一聲音,提高談判地位,期待簽署一項全面性投資協定。中國乃歐盟第一個對外投資協定談判之對象,歐盟又採取高標準投資保障談判策略。歐盟與中國雙邊投資協定談判除了影響歐中經貿關係之外,也將形塑國際投資規..
Investment plays a key role in EU-China trade relations. Since the Lisbon Treaty came into effect on December 1, 2009, the EU’s common commercial policy has extended to investment. Accordingly, the EU has exclusive compe- tence covering investment policy and its negotiation with third countries. Not to mention, the EU has become the main trading partner of China since 2011 because it identifies China as a strategic partner, as well as a targeting country with which to negotiate a high-standard bilateral investment agree..
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