經濟學界基於 1990 年代歐洲匯率機制危機的歷史教訓,與新近發展的內生整合理論,多認為即使無法擺脫馬斯垂克條約整合門檻的法規束縛,歐洲貨幣同盟至少應儘快邀請有意加入歐元區的歐盟東歐成員國,在此一過渡階段進行密切的經濟貨幣政策協調合作,以免再度發生匯率與金融危機。本文首先對經濟學界就歐洲貨幣同盟擴張議題,所發表的重要文獻進行評述。其次根據既有論點,以東歐經濟規模最大的捷克、匈牙利、波蘭作為研究對象,結合簡單的總體經濟模型與賽局分析概念,探討三國已為歐盟成員,且未來必以加入貨幣同盟為目標下,歐盟官方如改採內生整合理念,立即與之進行經濟貨幣政策協調合作,並協力穩定雙方的經濟金融發展,是否能夠互蒙利益,進而減低該國重蹈 1990 年代歐洲匯率機制採固定匯率與資本流動自由化,卻因欠缺國際經濟政策協調合作,以致引發匯率與金融危機的覆轍。模擬結果顯示,囿於目前進度,於 2010 年方有可能加入貨幣同盟的捷克,應有資格立即與歐洲中央銀行進行經濟政策協作,並有效降低過渡時期發生匯率與金融危機的風險。
Some economists believe that even if the Maastricht convergence criteria is indispensable, the European Monetary Union should at least invite Central and Eastern European countries to participate in economic policy coordination as soon as possible, on the basis of the theory of endogeneity and the experience of the ERM crisis in the 1990s. The purposes of this research are 1)to provide an economic literature review about the issue of EMU enlargement and 2)to determine whether a bilateral coalition of an accession country and the European Central Bank would eliminate the risk of an ERM II crisis occurring during the transitional period. The simulation results indicate that, at this moment, the Czech Republic is qualified under specific simulated shocks. By means of cooperation with the European Central Bank, its interest rate differential with respect to the euro area can be maintained at a lower level and therefore decreases the risk of suffering from substantial capital flows during the transition to the EMU.
觀察歐盟統合,歐盟 2004 年東擴是一項重要事件,因為透過東擴,歐盟將原屬於共產集團的中東歐國家納入歐盟會員國,並將歐盟價值規範與制度運作融入了中東歐新會員國的政治、經濟與社會生活之中,這一項成就讓歐洲大陸的和平與穩定局面大步向前;歐盟東擴後,歐盟對外關係研究主軸擴散到歐盟與鄰近國家交往,以歐盟睦鄰政策作為主要政策工具。歐盟的基本假定是,如果歐盟東擴取得豐碩成果,歐盟應該繼續複製東擴經驗、以誘因方式繼續向東擴散歐盟的理念與制度。但實際觀察睦鄰政策推動過程,..
The studies of EU’s Incentive Policy in its eastern and southern area have gained prominence in the literature. These findings suggest that the top- down/ bottom-up norms diffusion and adaptive learning process are helpful for the spread of democratization in new member and acceding states. More recently, after the completion of EU’s eastern enlargement, increasing studies are expanded to Eastern European countries; Ukraine and other eastern partners become the focal points of methodological objectives. The advent..
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